RRektrospect

@machibigbrother - 0x020ca66c30bec2c4fe3861a94e4db4a498a35872

@machibigbrother wallet audit

@machibigbrother audit. -$1,695,499 realised trading PnL across 9 closed position cycles, using the latest 10,000 public fills from May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit.

limited sampleLimited sample: only 9 closed position cycles are visible in the data covered (May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026). Raw metrics are shown, but behavioural conclusions stay caveated until there are at least 10 closed cycles. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.latest 10,000 fillsHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
Read trader analysisShare on X
Current account valueAccount value from Hyperliquid's public account state when this audit ran. This is a balance snapshot, not proof of lifetime deposits or withdrawals.$300,745latest 10,000 fills
Realised trading PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026. Deposits and withdrawals are not counted as PnL. Older public fills may exist outside this audit.-$1,695,499-84.9%
Max drawdownLargest fall from a previous balance high to a later low inside the data covered: May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026.-91.8%9 closed position cycles
Win rateShare of closed position cycles that ended positive. Profit factor compares total winning realised PnL with total losing realised PnL.+55.6%0.01 profit factor
Total volumeGross notional traded across 10,000 reconstructed public fills. A position cycle can contain many individual fills.$107,361,46712 position cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $300,745 minus closed trading PnL -$1,695,499 = starting estimate $1,996,244). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out. Older fills may also exist outside the latest 10,000-fill window.

Data coveredHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the latest 10,000 public fills Hyperliquid exposed for this wallet. Because the public fill source hit its cap, older trades may exist but are not included here.

Public fills
10,000
Position cycles
9 closed, 3 open
Limit
latest 10,000 fills only
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026. It is not a prediction.$300,745
latest fills onlyHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 16 with $1.8M and ends at May 17 with $301k.Account value (USD)Date$1.8M$1.1M$301kMay 16May 17May 17
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The sample is too small to draw reliable conclusions about this account's edge or behaviour.
  • In the data covered of 6 days and 9 closed trades, the account is -84.93% ($1.70M realised loss), with two catastrophic ETH long reversals consuming nearly all capital.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 13, 2026 to May 19, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The sample is too small to draw reliable conclusions about this account's edge or behaviour.
  • In the data covered of 6 days and 9 closed trades, the account is -84.93% ($1.70M realised loss), with two catastrophic ETH long reversals consuming nearly all capital.
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

The sample is too small to draw reliable conclusions about this account's edge or behaviour. In the data covered of 6 days and 9 closed trades, the account is -84.93% ($1.70M realised loss), with two catastrophic ETH long reversals consuming nearly all capital. HYPE longs are the only profitable instrument (5 episodes, 100% win rate, +$10.9k), but the sample is too small to separate skill from noise. An open ETH long at 25x leverage with no stop in place adds material downside risk to an already depleted account.

What the data shows

The account opened on 13 May 2026 and has traded for 6 days across 12 total episodes (9 closed, 3 open). The data covered captures only the most recent public fills; earlier history is not visible.

Realised PnL stands at -$1.77M after $32.2k in fees. The loss is almost entirely concentrated in two ETH long trades. The first, opened 13 May at $2,289.69 and closed 16 May at $2,240.24 over 61 hours, lost $845.7k on a $29M notional position. The second, opened 16 May and closed 17 May over 40 hours, lost $582.3k on a $16.1M notional position. Both trades are flagged as revenge trades. The structural stop on the first trade was set 1.11% below entry (ATR 14 1h), but the trade was allowed to run through a -2.92% maximum adverse excursion before exit.

BTC longs (2 episodes) lost $278.4k combined. ETH longs as a group lost $1.43M across 2 episodes with a 0% win rate. HYPE longs (5 episodes) are the sole profitable instrument, generating $10.9k with a 100% win rate. The largest HYPE win closed 17 May at $41.50 after entry at $41.08, generating $5.2k on a $918k notional position over 10 hours. A second HYPE trade the same day added $3.0k.

Fees consumed 1.8% of gross volume ($107.4M traded, $32.2k paid). Net fee drag equals gross fees paid, indicating no rebates in this window.

Trade quality

Win rate is 55.56% (5 wins, 4 losses from 9 closed episodes), but this is misleading: the five wins are all HYPE trades averaging small notionals, while the four losses include two catastrophic ETH reversals. The profit factor cannot be computed from the evidence pack. Expectancy is negative: realised PnL of -$1.77M divided by 9 closed episodes yields -$196.6k per closed trade.

Post-mortems

ETH long, 13–16 May 2026. Entry at $2,289.69, exit at $2,240.24, -$845.7k loss on $29M notional (25x leverage implied). Held 61 hours. Maximum adverse excursion was -2.92%; the structural stop (ATR 14 1h) was set 1.11% below entry but was not respected. The trade is flagged as a revenge trade. This single position consumed 50% of account equity.

ETH long, 16–17 May 2026. Opened 16 May, closed 17 May at $2,156.82 over 40 hours, -$582.3k loss on $16.1M notional. Entry price is not recorded in the available data. This trade is also flagged as a revenge trade and immediately followed the first ETH loss. Combined, these two ETH reversals account for $1.43M of the $1.70M total

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
1
Examples
  • HYPE on May 16, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome $5,159.
Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
3
Examples
  • ETH on May 13, 2026: followed a -$190,803 loss; larger-than-normal size.
  • BTC on May 16, 2026: followed a -$845,670 loss; larger-than-normal size.
+1 more matching cycle
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.-$188,388.78
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+0.0%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.-$6,756
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-0.6%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.-$13,512
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-1.3%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.-$27,025
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-2.5%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 14 with $1.1M and ends at May 17 with $1.1M.Account value (USD)Date$1.1M$1.1M$1.1MMay 14May 17

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
HYPElong$918,239$5,1592026-05-17
HYPElong$380,177$2,9972026-05-17
HYPElong$429,168$1,8622026-05-17
HYPElong$427,694$8152026-05-17
HYPElong$306,505$602026-05-17

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
ETH20.0%-$1,427,956
BTC20.0%-$278,435
HYPE5+100.0%$10,893
Share this audit on X