RRektrospect

@machibigbrother - 0x020ca66c30bec2c4fe3861a94e4db4a498a35872

@machibigbrother wallet audit

@machibigbrother audit. -$1,488,393 realised trading PnL across 9 closed position cycles, using the latest 10,000 public fills from May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit.

limited sampleLimited sample: only 9 closed position cycles are visible in the data covered (May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026). Raw metrics are shown, but behavioural conclusions stay caveated until there are at least 10 closed cycles. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.latest 10,000 fillsHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Current account valueAccount value from Hyperliquid's public account state when this audit ran. This is a balance snapshot, not proof of lifetime deposits or withdrawals.$658,201latest 10,000 fills
Realised trading PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Deposits and withdrawals are not counted as PnL. Older public fills may exist outside this audit.-$1,488,393-69.3%
Max drawdownLargest fall from a previous balance high to a later low inside the data covered: May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026.-97.2%9 closed position cycles
Win rateShare of closed position cycles that ended positive. Profit factor compares total winning realised PnL with total losing realised PnL.+55.6%0.01 profit factor
Total volumeGross notional traded across 10,000 reconstructed public fills. A position cycle can contain many individual fills.$96,929,07112 position cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $658,201 minus closed trading PnL -$1,488,393 = starting estimate $2,146,595). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out. Older fills may also exist outside the latest 10,000-fill window.

Data coveredHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the latest 10,000 public fills Hyperliquid exposed for this wallet. Because the public fill source hit its cap, older trades may exist but are not included here.

Public fills
10,000
Position cycles
9 closed, 3 open
Limit
latest 10,000 fills only
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. It is not a prediction.$658,201
latest fills onlyHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 16 with $1.5M and ends at May 17 with $658k.Account value (USD)Date$1.5M$1.1M$658kMay 16May 17May 17
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The account is -69.34% in the data covered, with $1.49M in realised losses across nine closed trades.
  • The sample is too small to draw behavioural conclusions, but the pattern is clear: two catastrophic ETH longs ($656k and $582k losses) and a BTC long ($172k loss) consumed the entire edge from five profitable HYPE trades.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The account is -69.34% in the data covered, with $1.49M in realised losses across nine closed trades.
  • The sample is too small to draw behavioural conclusions, but the pattern is clear: two catastrophic ETH longs ($656k and $582k losses) and a BTC long ($172k loss) consumed the entire edge from five profitable HYPE trades.
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history. The account is -69.34% in the data covered, with $1.49M in realised losses across nine closed trades. The sample is too small to draw behavioural conclusions, but the pattern is clear: two catastrophic ETH longs ($656k and $582k losses) and a BTC long ($172k loss) consumed the entire edge from five profitable HYPE trades. An open ETH long at 25× leverage, held 53 days, carries $229k unrealised profit but sits $13.78 above liquidation with no stop in place.

What the data shows

Nine closed episodes in the data covered generated -$1.65M in realised PnL after $29.9k in fees. The account opened with two large ETH losses on 15–16 May: a $656k loss closed at 2230.58 on 16 May, followed immediately by a $582k loss (flagged as a revenge trade) entered at 2183.2 on 16 May and closed at 2131.8 on 17 May. A BTC long on 15–16 May added another $172k loss. These three trades account for $1.41M of the $1.65M total loss.

Against this, five HYPE trades generated $10.9k in realised profit. The largest win was a 9.96-hour HYPE long entered at 41.08 on 16 May, exited at 41.5 on 17 May for $5.2k profit, flagged as averaging down. A second HYPE trade, flagged as a FOMO re-entry, entered at 42.63 on 17 May and closed at 41.89 the same day for $3k profit. Both HYPE trades were short-duration, tight-range scalps with structural stops in place.

The win rate across closed trades is 55.56%, but this masks the asymmetry: five wins on HYPE (100% win rate, $10.9k total) and zero wins on ETH or BTC (0% win rate, -$1.51M total). Fees consumed 1.8% of gross volume, a material drag on an account already underwater on execution.

Trade quality

Win rate of 55.56% is misleading given the sample is too small. The profit factor is undefined because the account is loss-making overall. Expectancy per closed trade is -$183k, driven entirely by the three large losses. The structural stops on HYPE trades (ATR 14 1H, 1.58–2.32% distance) were respected; the large ETH and BTC losses show no entry price data, suggesting market orders or fills outside the visible record.

Post-mortems

ETH long, 15–16 May, closed at $656k loss: Entered at an unknown price, exited at 2230.58 on 16 May after 25.69 hours. Position notional reached $20.8M. No structural stop recorded. This was the largest single loss in the data covered.

BTC long, 15–16 May, closed at $172k loss: Entered at an unknown price, exited at 78432.1 on 16 May after 17.37 hours. Flagged as a revenge trade. Position notional reached $7.86M. No entry price or structural stop data available.

ETH long, 16–17 May, closed at $582k loss: Entered at 2183.2 on 16 May, exited at 2131.8 on 17 May after 40.48 hours. Flagged as a revenge trade. Position notional reached $16.1M. Structural stop was ATR 14 1H at 0.66% distance, but

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
4
Examples
  • HYPE on May 17, 2026: re-entered at 42.63 after closing at 41.5 (May 17, 2026 prior close); outcome $2,997.
  • HYPE on May 17, 2026: re-entered at 43.15 after closing at 41.89 (May 17, 2026 prior close); outcome $815.
+2 more matching cycles
Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
1
Examples
  • HYPE on May 16, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome $5,159.
Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
3
Examples
  • BTC on May 15, 2026: followed a -$656,956 loss; larger-than-normal size.
  • BTC on May 16, 2026: followed a -$172,412 loss; larger-than-normal size.
+1 more matching cycle
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.-$165,377.05
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.0.0%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.-$37,417
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-2.8%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.-$74,835
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-5.7%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.-$149,670
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-11.4%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 17 with $1.3M and ends at May 17 with $1.2M.Account value (USD)Date$1.3M$1.3M$1.2MMay 17May 17May 17

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
HYPElong$918,239$5,1592026-05-17
HYPElong$380,177$2,9972026-05-17
HYPElong$429,168$1,8622026-05-17
HYPElong$427,694$8152026-05-17
HYPElong$306,505$602026-05-17

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
ETH20.0%-$1,239,242
BTC20.0%-$260,044
HYPE5+100.0%$10,893
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