RRektrospect

0x023a3d058020fb76cca98f01b3c48c8938a22355

0x023a...2355 wallet audit

Open ETH short dominates this wallet: $12,591,887 notional, -$171,537 -34.5% unrealised, 25x cross, held 52 days, liquidation $3,170. Closed trades are supporting context: $1,371 realised trading PnL across 20 closed position cycles, using the latest 10,000 public fills from May 17, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit.

near break-evenA quick bucket assigned from realised trading PnL, closed position-cycle count, and whether the public fill source was capped. Data covered: May 17, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.position-dominatedOpen unrealised PnL is more than 2x the absolute closed realised PnL ($1,371). The page leads with open exposure, and closed trades are supporting context.latest 10,000 fillsHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 17, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Dominant open positionThis wallet is led by live open exposure rather than closed trades. The trigger is open unrealised PnL greater than 2x closed realised PnL, or the largest open notional greater than closed-trade volume.Open ETH short dominates this wallet: $12,591,887 notional, -$171,537 -34.5% unrealised, 25x cross, held 52 days, liquidation $3,170.

Closed trades still matter, but they are not the main account story here. The closed-trade sample covers May 17, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; the open-position figures are live account-state figures from Hyperliquid when the audit ran. The unrealised PnL is still open, not a locked result; liquidation at $3,170 remains the downside boundary for this position.

Position
ETH short
Open PnL
-$171,537 (-34.5% ROE)
Notional
$12,591,887
Liquidation
$3,170
Read this as
entry $1,769 · mark $1,794 · held 52 days · 25x cross · $503,675 margin used
Open unrealised PnLLive mark-to-market profit or loss on current open positions from Hyperliquid account state. It is not closed or banked.$53,237-34.5% ROE
Open notionalCurrent notional value of the open positions. When this dwarfs closed-trade activity, the open position is the wallet's main story.$56,452,800ETH short
LiquidationLiquidation price reported by Hyperliquid for the dominant open position when available.$3,17025x cross
Closed realised PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: May 17, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. This excludes the live unrealised PnL above.$1,37120 closed cycles
Closed volumeGross notional from closed position cycles in the data covered. This is the comparison used to decide whether an open position dominates the wallet.$452,181109 total cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

This audit is position-dominated, so open unrealised PnL is shown separately from closed realised trading PnL. The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $31,142,868 minus closed trading PnL $1,371 = starting estimate $31,141,496). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out. Older fills may also exist outside the latest 10,000-fill window.

Data coveredHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 17, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.May 17, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the latest 10,000 public fills Hyperliquid exposed for this wallet. Because the public fill source hit its cap, older trades may exist but are not included here.

Public fills
10,000
Position cycles
20 closed, 89 open
Limit
latest 10,000 fills only
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: May 17, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. It is not a prediction.$31,142,868
latest fills onlyHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 17, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 17 with $31M and ends at Jul 10 with $31M.Account value (USD)Date$31M$31M$31MMay 17May 19Jul 10
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Open ETH short dominates this wallet: $12,591,887 notional, -$171,537 -34.5% unrealised, 25x cross, held 52 days, liquidation $3,170.
  • Closed-trade context: $1,371 realised trading PnL across 20 closed position cycles in the data covered.
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 17, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • Short-side edge is real. Closed shorts won 100% of the time (2 episodes) and generated $2.06k realised PnL. The BTC and SOL shorts are also profitable. The issue is not short selection; it is position sizing and holding duration.
  • The ETH short is a concentration failure. One underwater position dominates the account's risk profile, has accumulated $34.3k in funding costs, and has been held for 52 days without a stop. This is not a tactical loss; it is a risk management failure.
  • Closed trades show a size and discipline problem. Win rate of 85% is strong, but average loss (−$234) is twice average win ($122). The account is taking outsized losses relative to wins, and fees are consuming the edge on closed trades. The risk simulator shows that 1–4% stops would have generated $1.66m–$6.63m in this window, versus $1.37k actual.
  • Revenge trading and FOMO re-entries are visible. ONDO long loss triggered ZEC short revenge trade (which won). ONDO short was a FOMO re-entry after a previous close. These patterns
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

Open ETH short dominates this wallet: $12.59m notional, −$171.5k unrealised, −34.53% unrealised ROE, 25× leverage, cross margin, held 52 days, liquidation at $3,170.21. This is still open exposure; the unrealised loss is not locked in, and the final outcome remains unknown until the position closes. The liquidation price sits 77% above current mark, but the position is underwater by a material margin and represents the single largest source of risk in the account. Closed realised PnL is near break-even after fees in the data covered, but open positions dwarf that result: net unrealised gain of $53.2k across all open trades masks severe concentration risk in a single losing short.

Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history.

What the data shows

The account opened on 17 May 2026 and has traded 109 episodes across 54 days in the visible window. Closed realised PnL sits at −$6.5k after $18.9k in net fee drag, leaving the account near break-even on closed trades. However, the closed-trade result is noise relative to the open book: five open positions carry $56.5m notional and $53.2k net unrealised gain, but that aggregate figure masks a sharp bifurcation.

The ETH short is the problem child. Opened at $1,769.26 on 19 May, it has accumulated $34.3k in funding costs since entry and sits $171.5k underwater at current mark of $1,793.70. The position has been held for 52 days, suggesting conviction or inattention; either way, it is now a material drag. A BTC short opened the same day at $64,308.70 is performing better, up $38.3k unrealised on 40× leverage, but even that gain is dwarfed by the ETH loss. SOL short is also profitable at $72.1k unrealised, but again, the ETH position dominates the risk profile.

On the long side, ATOM is severely underwater at −$51k unrealised (−90.97% ROE on 5× leverage), while DYDX is marginally positive. These are secondary concerns relative to ETH, but they indicate a pattern: the account is holding losers and letting them compound via funding costs.

Closed trades show a short bias: shorts generated $2.06k realised PnL on 100% win rate (2 episodes), while longs lost $686 on 57% win rate (7 episodes). The short-side edge is real but narrow, and it has been overwhelmed by the open ETH position.

Trade quality

Win rate is 85% across 20 closed episodes, but profit factor of 2.95 and expectancy of $68.56 per closed trade tell the real story: average win is $122, average loss is −$234, and the win/loss ratio of 0.52 means losses are twice the size of wins. The account is winning often but losing big when it loses. Gross fees paid total $19.2k against $452k in closed trade volume, a 4.3% fee drag that consumed most of the edge on closed trades.

Post-mortems

ONDO long, 19 May, entry $0.38, exit $0.37, −$504.24 PnL. Opened at 05:30 UTC, closed 6.24 hours later. Structural stop was 4.92% away (ATR 14 1H). This was the largest single closed loss and appears to have triggered a revenge trade: ZEC short opened 23 minutes later at $565.72, closed at $561.31 for $243.02 gain. The revenge trade worked, but the pattern is visible.

XRP long, 18 May, exit $1.40, −$192.22 PnL. Minimal duration (0 hours recorded), max notional $3.4k. No entry price or structural stop recorded; this appears to be a liquidation or forced close. Small loss in isolation, but part of a losing streak on long entries.

What the risk simulation reveals

The risk simulator is gross of fees and uses historical counterfactuals. Under a 1% stop rule, the account would have generated $1.66m PnL with −1.56% max decline in this window. Under 2%, $3.32m with −2.94% max decline. Under 4%, $6.63m with −5.26% max decline. Win rate across all simulations is 53.85%, and one episode was stopped early due to data quality. These figures show that disciplined exits would have transformed the account from near break-even to substantially profitable, but they also highlight the cost of holding the ETH short without a stop: the position has had 52 days to move against the account, and it has.

Open positions

ETH short is the headline. $12.59m notional, −$171.5k unrealised, −34.53% ROE, 25× leverage, cross margin, held 52 days, liquidation at $3,170.21. No stop in place. This position is the single largest source of account risk and has been a drag for nearly two months.

BTC short is the counterweight: $7.47m notional, $38.3k unrealised, 20.39% ROE, 40× leverage, cross margin, held 52 days, liquidation at $147,315.82. No stop in place. This is profitable but also highly leveraged and unhedged.

SOL short carries $8.11m notional, $72.1k unrealised, 17.62% ROE, 20× leverage, cross margin, liquidation at $170.48. No stop in place.

ATOM long is a small position by notional ($229k) but deeply underwater at −$51k unrealised (−90.97% ROE) on 5× leverage. No hold duration recorded; entry price unknown.

DYDX long is marginal: $3.1k notional, $27.64 unrealised, 4.44% ROE, 5× leverage. No stop in place.

None of the five open positions have stops in place. The account is relying on liquidation prices as the only downside boundary, and the ETH position's liquidation is 77% away from mark—a wide margin that offers little practical protection.

Honest summary

  • Short-side edge is real. Closed shorts won 100% of the time (2 episodes) and generated $2.06k realised PnL. The BTC and SOL shorts are also profitable. The issue is not short selection; it is position sizing and holding duration.
  • The ETH short is a concentration failure. One underwater position dominates the account's risk profile, has accumulated $34.3k in funding costs, and has been held for 52 days without a stop. This is not a tactical loss; it is a risk management failure.
  • Closed trades show a size and discipline problem. Win rate of 85% is strong, but average loss (−$234) is twice average win ($122). The account is taking outsized losses relative to wins, and fees are consuming the edge on closed trades. The risk simulator shows that 1–4% stops would have generated $1.66m–$6.63m in this window, versus $1.37k actual.
  • Revenge trading and FOMO re-entries are visible. ONDO long loss triggered ZEC short revenge trade (which won). ONDO short was a FOMO re-entry after a previous close. These patterns

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
2
Examples
  • BTC on May 18, 2026: re-entered at 76,814.28 after closing at 76,972 (May 18, 2026 prior close); outcome $53.
  • ONDO on May 19, 2026: re-entered at 0.36 after closing at 0.4 (May 19, 2026 prior close); outcome $159.
Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
3
Examples
  • xyz:BRENTOIL on May 18, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome $191.
  • ETH on May 19, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome $6.
+1 more matching cycle
Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
1
Examples
  • ZEC on May 19, 2026: followed a -$504 loss; larger-than-normal size.
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.$68.56
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+65.4%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.$1,657,503
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-1.6%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.$3,315,005
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-2.9%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.$6,630,010
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-5.3%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 18 with $35M and ends at Jul 10 with $34M.Account value (USD)Date$35M$35M$34MMay 18May 19Jul 10

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
MONshort$8,013$7772026-05-18
MORPHOshort$9,712$4712026-05-17
ZECshort$23,244$2432026-05-19
xyz:BRENTOILshort$50,180$1912026-05-18
ONDOshort$9,435$1592026-05-19

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
MON1+100.0%$777
MORPHO1+100.0%$471
ONDO5+80.0%-$308
ZEC1+100.0%$243
XRP10.0%-$192
xyz:BRENTOIL1+100.0%$191
BTC2+100.0%$92
PUMP1+100.0%$45
STX1+100.0%$38
TRX1+100.0%$7
AAVE10.0%-$6
ETH1+100.0%$6
hyna:BTC1+100.0%$6
AR1+100.0%$1
ETHFI1+100.0%$1
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