Bottom line up front
Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history. The account is profitable in this window: +0.66% net PnL ($87,624.87 on a $13.3M starting balance), but the headline masks severe behavioural fragility. Short-side edge in ETH and BTC generated $99,845 in realised gains; long-side attempts lost $12,220. The single largest loss—a $10,701 revenge trade in CBRS opened 46.67 times the median loss size—was closed in 47 minutes. The deepest decline in this window was -0.08%, but the account carries five open positions with no stops in place and $1,414 in unrealised losses across them.
What the data shows
This is a short-biased account that found genuine edge in directional shorts on large-cap instruments. The ETH short opened 15 May at 2221.41 and closed the same day, returning $93,109 on a $2.84M notional position in 4.4 hours. A BTC short opened 15 May and held 56.5 hours, closing 18 May at 79,127.26 for $3,314. These two trades account for 96.5% of realised PnL. The short-side win rate is 93.33% across 15 episodes; the long-side win rate is 30% across 10 episodes.
The account then deteriorated into tactical errors. After a $243.67 loss on an ETH long (15–18 May, entry 2222.7, exit 2121.3), the trader opened a $81,770 notional long in CBRS on 16 May at 16:45 UTC and exited 47 minutes later at 271.62, realising -$10,701. This was flagged as both an oversized loser (46.67× median loss) and a revenge trade. The CBRS position was 1.3× the account's starting balance at entry. The structural stop was 4% away; the position was never given room to breathe.
ONDO produced a second behavioural pattern: re-entry after a closed loss. The trader closed an ONDO long on 19 May at 05:37 UTC at 0.3951, losing $504.24. Six hours later, at 11:58 UTC, the same coin was re-entered at 0.3648 (lower price, same direction) with a $42,519 notional position. This re-entry closed the same day at 0.37, recovering $159.14 of the prior loss but leaving the net ONDO record at -$308.19 across five episodes.
Fees are negligible: $67.28 net drag on $73,624 realised PnL (0.62% fee-to-PnL ratio). The account is 60.62% maker, indicating passive order placement and good execution discipline on entry. Gross volume was $22.9M across 106 closed episodes in three days.
Trade quality
Win rate is 68% across 25 closed episodes. Profit factor is 8.15 (average win $5,876 vs. average loss $1,533). Expectancy is $3,505 per closed trade. Win/loss ratio is 3.83:1. These are strong headline metrics, but they are entirely driven by two outsized shorts. Excluding the ETH and BTC shorts, the remaining 23 closed trades show a win rate of 60.9%, average win of $1,209, and average loss of $1,532—a breakeven-to-slightly-negative profile. The account is profitable only because two large, well-timed short positions offset subsequent tactical losses and re-entries.
Post-mortems
CBRS long, 16 May 16:45–17:33 UTC. Entry price not recorded; exit at 271.62. Position notional $81,769.61, closed in 47 minutes for -$10,701.47. This trade was opened immediately after the $243.67 ETH loss and flagged as a revenge trade. The position size was 46.67 times the median loss in the account, suggesting a sharp loss of discipline. A 4% structural stop was available but not used. The trade moved against the account from entry and was exited at market.
ONDO long, 19 May 05:43–11:58 UTC (re-entry). First entry at 0.3951 on 19 May 05:37 UTC, closed at loss. Re-entry at 0.3648 on 19 May 11:58 UTC (6 hours later), same direction, notional $42,519.42. Exit at 0.37 on 19 May 11:58 UTC for -$504.24. A 4% structural stop was in place but not triggered. The re-entry was at a lower price than the prior close, suggesting the trader was averaging down after a loss rather than waiting for a fresh signal.
What the risk simulator reveals
Under a 1% stop-loss rule applied historically, the account would have realised $303,023 PnL with a deepest decline of -1.95%. Under 2%, $606,046 with -3.76%. Under 4%, $1,212,092 with -7.03%. The simulator flagged three episodes stopped early, indicating positions that would have hit the stop before closing naturally. The win rate across all simulated scenarios is 69.23%, slightly above the actual 68%. These counterfactuals show that mechanical stops would have prevented the CBRS catastrophe and the ONDO re-entry, converting a profitable-but-fragile account into a substantially more profitable one.
Open positions
Five open positions carry no stops. ETH long (entry 2115.35, leverage 25) is underwater -$1,012.50. BTC short (entry 76,633.2, leverage 40) is underwater -$401.83. ATOM long (entry 2.0514, leverage 5) is slightly profitable at +$18.21. DYDX short (entry 0.13989, leverage 5) is underwater -$13.63. SOL long (entry 84.5989, leverage 20) is flat at +$0.34. The ETH position is the largest unrealised loss and carries 25× leverage. None of these positions have defined exit rules or downside boundaries.
Honest summary
- Genuine short-side edge visible. ETH and BTC shorts were well-timed, large, and profitable. The 93.33% short-side win rate and $99,845 in short PnL show the trader can identify directional moves in liquid instruments.
- Revenge trading and position-sizing collapse after losses. The CBRS trade was 46× the median loss and opened within hours of a $243 loss. ONDO was re-entered at a lower price after a closed loss. Both trades were oversized relative to the account's loss tolerance and lacked mechanical stops.
- No stops on any open position despite demonstrated tactical losses. Five open positions with leverage (5–40×) carry zero stop orders. The account has proven it can lose $10,701 in 47 minutes; the current open book is undefended.
- Sample is too small for long-term pattern inference. Three days of trading history, 106 closed episodes, and a hit on the 10k-fill cap mean this window is a snapshot, not a track record. The profitability is real but contingent on two large shorts; the behavioural flags (revenge trades, re-entries, oversized losers) are visible but may not persist.