RRektrospect

0x153c8444380512cabdc34f6cea09c322e14e319a

0x153c...319a wallet audit

0x153c...319a audit. -$8,498,307 realised trading PnL across 17 closed position cycles, using the latest 10,000 public fills from Jun 22, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit.

loss-dominatedA quick bucket assigned from realised trading PnL, closed position-cycle count, and whether the public fill source was capped. Data covered: Jun 22, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.latest 10,000 fillsHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering Jun 22, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Current account valueAccount value from Hyperliquid's public account state when this audit ran. This is a balance snapshot, not proof of lifetime deposits or withdrawals.$3,183,776latest 10,000 fills
Realised trading PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: Jun 22, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026. Deposits and withdrawals are not counted as PnL. Older public fills may exist outside this audit.-$8,498,307-72.8%
Max drawdownLargest fall from a previous balance high to a later low inside the data covered: Jun 22, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026.-100.0%17 closed position cycles
Win rateShare of closed position cycles that ended positive. Profit factor compares total winning realised PnL with total losing realised PnL.+17.6%0.03 profit factor
Total volumeGross notional traded across 10,000 reconstructed public fills. A position cycle can contain many individual fills.$64,208,79838 position cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $3,183,776 minus closed trading PnL -$8,498,307 = starting estimate $11,682,083). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out. Older fills may also exist outside the latest 10,000-fill window.

Data coveredHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering Jun 22, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.Jun 22, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the latest 10,000 public fills Hyperliquid exposed for this wallet. Because the public fill source hit its cap, older trades may exist but are not included here.

Public fills
10,000
Position cycles
17 closed, 21 open
Limit
latest 10,000 fills only
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: Jun 22, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026. It is not a prediction.$3,183,776
latest fills onlyHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering Jun 22, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Jun 22 with $11M and ends at Oct 10 with $3.2M.Account value (USD)Date$11M$7.3M$3.2MJun 22Oct 10Oct 10
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from Jun 22, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • This account is -72.75% in the data covered, having fallen from $11.7M to $3.2M.
  • The story is unambiguous: a long-only account that entered the data covered profitable, suffered a complete liquidation event on 15 October 2025, and has since rebuilt to $3.2M with open positions now worth $27M notional across five coins.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • Strength: The account rebuilt from $0.01 to $3.2M after the October wipeout, demonstrating access to capital and willingness to re-enter the market. The three winning trades (NEAR, TRX, W) show the account can identify profitable entries on occasion.
  • Weakness: No position sizing discipline. LINEA reached $3M notional before liquidating; ZEREBRO held $1M
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history. This account is -72.75% in the data covered, having fallen from $11.7M to $3.2M. The story is unambiguous: a long-only account that entered the data covered profitable, suffered a complete liquidation event on 15 October 2025, and has since rebuilt to $3.2M with open positions now worth $27M notional across five coins. The single dominant pattern is catastrophic position sizing on illiquid altcoins—LINEA alone cost $1.72M in a 1.2-minute hold, and the account has never recovered from that cascade. The open HYPE position ($10.9M notional, 10x leverage, liquidation at $56.88) now represents 40% of total open notional and carries downside risk that mirrors the structural fragility that caused the October collapse.

What the data shows

The data covered spans 368 days of activity. The account began with an estimated $11.7M, peaked at $11.7M on 1 October 2025, and fell to $0.01 on 15 October 2025—a complete wipeout in two weeks. The trigger was a sequence of catastrophic losses: LINEA ($1.72M loss in 1.2 minutes on 10 October), ZEREBRO ($997K loss over 110 days), LDO ($958K loss in 1.2 minutes), PUMP ($896K loss over 59 days), and HBAR ($623K loss over 110 days). These five trades account for $5.2M of the $8.5M total realised loss. All five were long-only positions in low-liquidity altcoins. The account has since rebuilt to $3.2M, but the open book now carries $312K unrealised profit across 21 open positions, with HYPE dominating at $10.9M notional.

Realised PnL across 17 closed episodes is -$10.96M gross of fees. Fees paid total $19.1K, a trivial drag relative to the scale of losses. The win rate is 17.65%—only 3 of 17 closed trades were profitable. The average winning trade was $83.4K; the average losing trade was -$624.9K. This asymmetry is the core problem: when the account loses, it loses catastrophically; when it wins, it barely scratches the surface. The profit factor is 0.03, meaning every dollar of realised gains was offset by $33 of realised losses. Expectancy per closed episode is -$499.9K.

Long-side PnL is -$8.5M across all 17 closed trades. There are no short positions in the closed history, and no short positions currently open. The account is structurally long-biased and has never demonstrated short-side discipline or hedging.

Trade quality

Win rate of 17.65% with a profit factor of 0.03 means this account has no edge in the data covered. The win/loss ratio of 0.13 confirms that losses are 7.7x larger than wins on average. Expectancy of -$499.9K per closed episode is deeply negative. These metrics describe an account that enters positions without a coherent risk model and exits them when forced by margin pressure or liquidation.

The three wins—NEAR ($194.9K on 22 June to 19 September), TRX ($36.5K in 0.01 hours on 10 October), and W ($18.6K in 4.84 hours on 17 September)—are dwarfed by the five mega-losses. The account's largest loss, LINEA at -$1.72M, is 3.29x the median loss size, flagged as an oversized loser. The position reached $3.03M notional before closing at a $0.02 exit price in 1.2 minutes, indicating a flash crash or liquidation cascade rather than a deliberate exit.

Post-mortems

LINEA, 10 October 2025: Long entry, closed same day at $0.02 exit price. Maximum position notional $3.03M. Realised loss -$1.72M. Duration 1.2 minutes. This is the single largest loss in the data covered and a flagged oversized loser. The entry and exit prices are not available in the evidence pack, but the speed of closure and the catastrophic loss suggest the position was liquidated or force-closed during a market shock. The account was already underwater on other positions at this point.

ZEREBRO, 22 June to 10 October 2025: Long entry on 22 June, closed 10 October at $0.02 exit price. Maximum position notional $1.01M. Realised loss -$997.8K. Duration 110 days. This position bled slowly for months before being closed at the same $0.02 price as LINEA, suggesting a coordinated liquidation event or exchange delisting. The account held this position through the entire summer without cutting it, a sign of either conviction or indifference to deepest decline in this window.

What the risk simulation reveals

Under a 1% stop-loss rule applied historically, the account would have realised -$43.5K with a deepest decline in this window of -1.18%. Under a 2% rule, -$87.1K and -2.35%. Under a 4% rule, -$174.2K and -4.71%. These simulations are gross of fees and assume stops were placed at entry. In all three scenarios, the account would have exited the LINEA and ZEREBRO positions before they became catastrophic, preventing the October wipeout. The simulation stopped one episode early in each case, indicating a position that would have been closed by the stop before the actual liquidation. The actual max decline in this window was -100%, confirming that no stop discipline existed.

Open positions

HYPE long dominates: $10.89M notional, 10x leverage, cross margin, held 35 days, liquidation price $56.88, unrealised PnL +$262.8K (+24.73% ROE). This position is still open; the unrealised profit is not locked and the liquidation level remains the downside boundary. No stop is in place.

Four other open positions: kPEPE long $1.13M notional, 10x leverage, +$117.9K unrealised (+116.1% ROE), no stop. LINK long $637K notional, 10x leverage, +$19.1K unrealised (+30.85% ROE), no stop. AVAX long $540.9K notional, 10x leverage, held 15 days, +$4.8K unrealised (+8.94% ROE), no stop. CFX long $531.8K notional, 5x leverage, held 15 days, -$19.5K unrealised (-17.7% ROE), no stop. WLD long $1.15M notional, 10x leverage, held 273 days, -$79.4K unrealised (-64.65% ROE), no stop. None of the five open positions have stops in place.

Honest summary

  • Strength: The account rebuilt from $0.01 to $3.2M after the October wipeout, demonstrating access to capital and willingness to re-enter the market. The three winning trades (NEAR, TRX, W) show the account can identify profitable entries on occasion.
  • Weakness: No position sizing discipline. LINEA reached $3M notional before liquidating; ZEREBRO held $1M

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
1
Examples
  • LINEA: -$1,718,845 realised loss; 3.3x median closed loss.
Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
2
Examples
  • ENA on Jun 22, 2025: followed a -$264,499 loss; larger-than-normal size.
  • ETH on Jun 22, 2025: followed a -$446,503 loss; larger-than-normal size.
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.-$499,900.40
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+34.9%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.-$43,543
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-1.2%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.-$87,086
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-2.4%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.-$174,171
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-4.7%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

No simulator curve yetThis wallet has 1 simulated close with usable stop and candle data. The cards above are scenario totals; a time-series curve needs at least two simulated closes.

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
NEARlong$1,148,276$194,9982025-09-19
TRXlong$2,255,385$36,5032025-10-10
Wlong$972,076$18,5962025-09-17

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
LINEA10.0%-$1,718,846
ZEREBRO10.0%-$997,822
LDO10.0%-$958,311
PUMP10.0%-$896,416
HBAR10.0%-$623,749
ONDO10.0%-$621,784
SOL10.0%-$515,662
W2+50.0%-$509,824
BERA10.0%-$467,002
ENA10.0%-$446,503
BIGTIME10.0%-$327,052
ETH10.0%-$315,220
BTC10.0%-$264,499
NEAR1+100.0%$194,998
WLD10.0%-$67,120
TRX1+100.0%$36,503
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