Bottom line up front
Open XYZ100 short dominates this wallet: $5.62m notional, -$35,043 unrealised PnL, -18.82% unrealised ROE, 30× leverage, isolated margin, held 63 days, liquidation at $30,217. This position is still open; the unrealised loss is not locked in, and the liquidation level remains the downside boundary. The account is -0.14% in the data covered, but that headline obscures the real story: a single underwater short position has consumed nearly all closed-trade profits. Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history.
What the data shows
The account opened on 8 May 2026 and has executed 40 total episodes (24 closed, 16 open) across 63 days. Realised PnL on closed trades is -$70,991 after $18,788 in fees, a net loss of -$52,203 before the open book. The XYZ100 short, initiated on 8 May at $29,651 and still held, has accrued -$35,043 in unrealised losses while funding costs have drained a further -$5,418 data-covered. Without this single position, the closed-trade record would show a small profit; with it, the account sits at -$95,744 in net unrealised losses across all open positions.
The long side generated $23,426 realised PnL on a 61% win rate across 18 episodes. BTC longs were the primary edge: 11 episodes, 72.7% win rate, $19,293 profit. The short side lost $38,720 on a 0% win rate across 10 episodes—a complete absence of edge. ETH and the two INTC shorts each produced outsized losses flagged as 3–6.5× median loss size. The account paid $18,788 in fees on $62.4m in closed trade volume, a 30 basis point drag that eroded an already thin margin.
The highest balance in this window was $11.0m on 1 July; the lowest was $9.84m on 3 June, a deepest decline in this window of -8.64%. The account has recovered to $10.77m as of the snapshot, but that recovery is entirely dependent on the XYZ100 position not deteriorating further.
Trade quality
Win rate is 45.83%, profit factor 0.74, expectancy -$637 per closed episode, and win/loss ratio 0.88. These numbers describe an account that loses money on average per trade and generates less than a dollar of profit for every dollar of loss. The 45% win rate is below breakeven threshold; the 0.74 profit factor means losses outweigh wins by a 26% margin. Expectancy of -$637 per episode is the mechanical outcome: the account closes trades at a loss and pays fees on the way.
Post-mortems
ETH long, 9–10 May 2026. Opened at $2,313.62, exited at $2,320.33 for -$15,699. This was the largest single loss in the data covered. The position reached $3.05m notional and was flagged as an oversized loser (6.51× median loss). Structural stop distance was 0.46% from entry; the trade moved 0.51% against the entry before closing. Duration was 16 hours. The trade had positive MFE of 0.54% but never recovered.
INTC short, 8 May 2026. Opened and closed on 8 May in 2.16 hours for -$9,414. No entry price is recorded. The position reached $294k notional and was flagged as an oversized loser (3.9× median loss). This was a rapid, high-leverage entry that failed immediately.
What the risk simulation reveals
Under a 1% stop-loss rule applied historically, the account would have realised $21,230 in PnL with a deepest decline in this window of -1.68%, stopping out 5 trades early. Under 2%, simulated PnL rises to $42,460 with a -3.29% deepest decline. Under 4%, simulated PnL reaches $84,920 with a -6.35% deepest decline. These are gross of fees. The simulation shows that mechanical stops would have prevented the largest losses and turned the account profitable; the actual account lacks stops entirely.
Open positions
The XYZ100 short is the dominant exposure by unrealised loss magnitude. Four other positions are open: ETH short ($1.14m notional, +$400 unrealised, 0.88% ROE, 25× leverage), BTC short ($1.28m notional, -$200 unrealised, -0.62% ROE, 40× leverage), and two micro longs in ARB and WLD totalling $61k notional with negligible unrealised PnL. NEAR long is also open at $44k notional with -$106 unrealised. None of the open positions have stops in place.
Honest summary
- Visible strength: BTC longs worked consistently (72.7% win rate, $19.3k profit). The account has identified an edge in one instrument and direction.
- Visible weakness: Shorts have zero edge (0% win rate, -$38.7k loss). The account has persisted in a losing direction across multiple instruments and has not adapted.
- Visible weakness: Oversized losers dominate the loss ledger. Four trades flagged as 3–6.5× median loss size account for $41.5k of the $70.9k realised loss. Position sizing is not calibrated to risk.
- Visible weakness: No stops are deployed on any open position, including the dominant XYZ100 short. The account is exposed to liquidation on the XYZ100 at $30,217 (0.19% below current mark) with no mechanical protection.
- Data scope: Only the most recent 10,000 fills are visible. Earlier account history is not available for analysis.