RRektrospect

0x3bcae23e8c380dab4732e9a159c0456f12d866f3

0x3bca...66f3 wallet audit

0x3bca...66f3 audit. -$29,963 realised trading PnL across 26 closed position cycles, using the latest 10,000 public fills from May 8, 2026 to May 11, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit.

loss-dominatedA quick bucket assigned from realised trading PnL, closed position-cycle count, and whether the public fill source was capped. Data covered: May 8, 2026 to May 11, 2026. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.latest 10,000 fillsHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 8, 2026 to May 11, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Current account valueAccount value from Hyperliquid's public account state when this audit ran. This is a balance snapshot, not proof of lifetime deposits or withdrawals.$10,382,171latest 10,000 fills
Realised trading PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: May 8, 2026 to May 11, 2026. Deposits and withdrawals are not counted as PnL. Older public fills may exist outside this audit.-$29,963-0.3%
Max drawdownLargest fall from a previous balance high to a later low inside the data covered: May 8, 2026 to May 11, 2026.-0.3%26 closed position cycles
Win rateShare of closed position cycles that ended positive. Profit factor compares total winning realised PnL with total losing realised PnL.+42.3%0.57 profit factor
Total volumeGross notional traded across 10,000 reconstructed public fills. A position cycle can contain many individual fills.$92,482,45040 position cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $10,382,171 minus closed trading PnL -$29,963 = starting estimate $10,412,135). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out. Older fills may also exist outside the latest 10,000-fill window.

Data coveredHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 8, 2026 to May 11, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.May 8, 2026 to May 11, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the latest 10,000 public fills Hyperliquid exposed for this wallet. Because the public fill source hit its cap, older trades may exist but are not included here.

Public fills
10,000
Position cycles
26 closed, 14 open
Limit
latest 10,000 fills only
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: May 8, 2026 to May 11, 2026. It is not a prediction.$10,382,171
latest fills onlyHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 8, 2026 to May 11, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 8 with $10M and ends at May 11 with $10M.Account value (USD)Date$10M$10M$10MMay 8May 10May 11
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 8, 2026 to May 11, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The account is loss-making in that window: -0.29% net, or -$29,963 on a $10.4M starting balance.
  • The headline figure masks a structural problem: BTC longs are the only reliable edge (69% win rate, +$21.4k), but outsized losses on ETH and short-side index trades have consumed that edge and then some.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • BTC longs work. 69% win rate, +$21.4k realised PnL across 13 episodes. This is the only instrument with a measurable edge. The account should be profitable if this edge were isolated and sized appropriately.
  • Short-side and index trades have no edge and are sized recklessly. 0% win rate on shorts, -$39.2k realised PnL. The two largest losses (ETH long -$15.7k, INTC shorts -$18.4k combined) are both oversized relative to median loss and appear to lack structural stops. Position notionals on losing trades ($3.05M on ETH, $312k on INTC) are inconsistent with the account's ability to absorb them.
  • No stops are in place on any open position. Five shorts totalling -$59.8k unrealised loss, all unprotected. This is the most acute risk in the data covered.
  • Fees are a secondary issue. $19.8k in fees is material, but the core problem is position sizing and instrument selection, not execution quality.
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history. The account is loss-making in that window: -0.29% net, or -$29,963 on a $10.4M starting balance. The headline figure masks a structural problem: BTC longs are the only reliable edge (69% win rate, +$21.4k), but outsized losses on ETH and short-side index trades have consumed that edge and then some. Fees of $19.8k are material but secondary to the core issue—position sizing on losing trades is wildly inconsistent with position sizing on winning ones.

What the data shows

This is a 3-day window (8–11 May 2026) with 26 closed episodes and 14 open positions. The account started with approximately $10.41M and finished at $10.38M. The highest balance in this window was $10.41M; the lowest balance in this window was $10.38M, representing a deepest decline in this window of -0.34%.

Money is made almost exclusively on BTC longs: 13 episodes, 69% win rate, +$21.4k realised PnL. The single revenge trade on 8 May—a $3.94M notional BTC long opened after an ETH loss—closed 13 hours later for +$6.4k, a clean tactical win that should have signalled discipline. Instead, it appears to have anchored confidence in size.

Money is lost on everything else. ETH is the worst performer: 7 episodes, 14% win rate, -$32.3k realised PnL. The two oversized losses dominate: a long on 9–10 May closed at $2,316.92 for -$15.7k (4.06x the median loss size), and a short on 10–11 May closed at $2,341.85 for -$7.9k (3.24x median). The short-side index trades (INTC, SNDK) are 0% win rate across 4 episodes, -$27.9k combined. Two INTC shorts on 8 May alone cost -$18.4k in aggregate.

Fees of $19.8k represent 19.4% of gross realised losses. Gross volume was $92.5M; maker percentage was 39.81%, suggesting reasonable execution quality, but the fee drag is still material relative to the -$102k gross realised PnL.

Long trades are +$9.2k (55% win rate); short trades are -$39.2k (0% win rate). The short-side is a complete liability.

Trade quality

Win rate is 42.31% across 26 closed episodes. Profit factor is 0.57—for every dollar won, the account lost $1.75. Expectancy is -$1,152.44 per trade. Win/loss ratio is 0.78: average win is $3,615, average loss is -$4,649. These numbers describe an account that is losing money on a per-trade basis and has no statistical edge outside BTC longs.

The 42% win rate is respectable in isolation, but it is being dragged down by a 0% short-side win rate. The long-side is carrying the account; the short-side is destroying it.

Post-mortems

ETH long, 9–10 May, closed at $2,316.92, -$15,698.67. This is the largest single loss in the data covered and flagged as an oversized loser (4.06x median loss). Position notional reached $3.05M. Duration was 16 hours. No entry price is recorded, so the exact entry level is not visible, but the exit at $2,316.92 and the scale of the loss suggest either a poor entry or a failure to cut the position when it moved against the account. This loss alone consumed all BTC long gains.

INTC short, 8 May, closed at $121.63, -$9,868.87. Opened and closed on the same day in 2.25 hours. Position notional was $312k. Flagged as oversized loser (3.5x median). This is a short-side index trade with no edge signal in the data. The rapid close suggests a stop-out or a panic exit, but the loss size relative to the position is severe.

What the risk simulator reveals

Under a 1% hard stop rule, simulated PnL would have been -$15.3k with a deepest decline in this window of -0.15%. Under a 2% rule, -$30.7k with -0.30% deepest decline. Under a 4% rule, -$61.3k with -0.59% deepest decline. The simulator ran zero early stops across all three scenarios, meaning no single trade hit the threshold before closing naturally. This is consistent with the data: the largest loss (ETH long, -$15.7k) was allowed to run for 16 hours without a structural stop. A 1% rule would have halved the damage.

Open positions

Five open positions are currently held, all short, all without stops in place:

  • SOL short, 20x leverage, entry $97.5954, unrealised +$1,012.53. Smallest position, smallest loss.
  • XYZ100 short, 30x leverage, entry $29,022.91, unrealised -$24,458.48. Largest unrealised loss, highest leverage.
  • INTC short, 10x leverage, entry $127.7058, unrealised -$2,740.56. This coin has already cost -$18.4k in closed losses; the open short is underwater.
  • AMD short, 10x leverage, entry $462.169, unrealised +$941.96. Small unrealised gain.
  • MU short, 10x leverage, entry $729.717, unrealised -$34,577.91. Second-largest unrealised loss. This position alone exceeds the entire account's realised loss in the data covered.

Total unrealised loss across the five open shorts is approximately -$59.8k. None have stops. The account is currently exposed to a deepest decline in this window larger than the entire loss recorded in the closed episodes.

Honest summary

  • BTC longs work. 69% win rate, +$21.4k realised PnL across 13 episodes. This is the only instrument with a measurable edge. The account should be profitable if this edge were isolated and sized appropriately.
  • Short-side and index trades have no edge and are sized recklessly. 0% win rate on shorts, -$39.2k realised PnL. The two largest losses (ETH long -$15.7k, INTC shorts -$18.4k combined) are both oversized relative to median loss and appear to lack structural stops. Position notionals on losing trades ($3.05M on ETH, $312k on INTC) are inconsistent with the account's ability to absorb them.
  • No stops are in place on any open position. Five shorts totalling -$59.8k unrealised loss, all unprotected. This is the most acute risk in the data covered.
  • Fees are a secondary issue. $19.8k in fees is material, but the core problem is position sizing and instrument selection, not execution quality.
  • Sample is too small for behavioural extrapolation. Three days and 26 closed episodes is insufficient to draw conclusions about discipline, psychology, or long-term edge. The revenge trade on BTC worked, but one successful revenge trade does not establish a pattern. The data shows what happened, not

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
4
Examples
  • xyz:INTC: -$9,869 realised loss; 4.1x median closed loss.
  • xyz:INTC: -$8,508 realised loss; 3.5x median closed loss.
+2 more matching cycles
Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
1
Examples
  • BTC on May 8, 2026: followed a -$776 loss; larger-than-normal size.
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.-$1,152.44
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+39.8%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.-$15,336
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-0.1%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
0
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.-$30,673
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-0.3%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
0
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.-$61,345
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-0.6%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
0

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 8 with $10M and ends at May 8 with $10M.Account value (USD)Date$10M$10M$10MMay 8May 8

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
LAYERlong$42,997$9,6402026-05-10
BTClong$1,090,949$7,1452026-05-11
BTClong$3,937,150$6,3722026-05-09
ETHlong$993,950$4,6652026-05-11
BTClong$1,414,980$3,2282026-05-11

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
ETH7+14.3%-$32,257
BTC13+69.2%$21,402
xyz:INTC20.0%-$18,377
LAYER1+100.0%$9,640
xyz:SNDK20.0%-$9,619
STRK10.0%-$752
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