RRektrospect

@jameswynnreal - 0x5078c2fbea2b2ad61bc840bc023e35fce56bedb6

@jameswynnreal wallet audit

@jameswynnreal audit. -$40,487 realised trading PnL across 30 closed position cycles, using 1,999 public fills from Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026.

loss-dominatedA quick bucket assigned from realised trading PnL, closed position-cycle count, and whether the public fill source was capped. Data covered: Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.Jan 8-Jul 10 dataThis audit used 1,999 public fills covering Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Current account valueAccount value from Hyperliquid's public account state when this audit ran. This is a balance snapshot, not proof of lifetime deposits or withdrawals.$9,151Jan 8-Jul 10
Realised trading PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Deposits and withdrawals are not counted as PnL. This is the visible public fill history used by this audit.-$40,487-81.6%
Max drawdownLargest fall from a previous balance high to a later low inside the data covered: Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026.-98.5%30 closed position cycles
Win rateShare of closed position cycles that ended positive. Profit factor compares total winning realised PnL with total losing realised PnL.+23.3%0.54 profit factor
Total volumeGross notional traded across 1,999 reconstructed public fills. A position cycle can contain many individual fills.$22,629,68437 position cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $9,151 minus closed trading PnL -$40,487 = starting estimate $49,638). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out.

Data coveredThis audit used 1,999 public fills covering Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the public fills used for this wallet, so the page should be read as 183 calendar days of visible trading history.

Public fills
1,999
Position cycles
30 closed, 7 open
Limit
public fill cap not hit
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. It is not a prediction.$9,151
all visible fillsThis audit used 1,999 public fills covering Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Jan 14 with $25k and ends at Jun 26 with $9.2k.Account value (USD)Date$25k$3k-$19kJan 14Jun 2Jun 26
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Data used: 1,999 public fills from Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; this is the actual visible trading span, not a preset last-week or last-month period.
  • This account is -81.6% in the analysed window, having eroded from a $49,638 starting balance to $9,151.
  • The decline is not gradual: the account peaked at $50,314 on 27 June, then fell to a trough of $107 on 18 March, a 98.55% drawdown.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • Short-side edge exists in the data. The account's 31.58% win rate and +$7,925 PnL on short trades is the only consistent positive signal. This suggests the trader may have some edge in short-side execution or timing, but it has been systematically erased by long-side losses and oversized revenge trades.
  • Revenge trading and position sizing are the primary failure modes. Five of the seven largest losses are revenge trades. Three of those five are oversized by 9x to 23x relative to median loss size. The kPEPE and ETH trades in January represent a $1.8M notional loss sequence taken on a $49K account within
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

This account is -81.6% in the analysed window, having eroded from a $49,638 starting balance to $9,151. The decline is not gradual: the account peaked at $50,314 on 27 June, then fell to a trough of $107 on 18 March, a 98.55% drawdown. The single dominant pattern is oversized revenge trades following losses. Five of the account's seven largest losses are flagged as revenge trades, and three of those five are also oversized relative to median loss size by multiples of 9x to 23x. The account is currently short xyz:SP500 with $732,543 notional at 50x leverage, holding $18,864 of unrealised losses against a liquidation price of 7588.37—still open, outcome unknown, downside boundary at liquidation.

What the data shows

The account opened on 8 January 2026 with approximately $49,638 and has closed 30 trades while maintaining 7 open positions. Realised PnL across closed trades is -$114,908, and fees have cost $6,424, leaving a net realised loss of -$40,487 after accounting for open unrealised positions. The account has traded nine instruments: BTC, ETH, kPEPE, xyz:SP500, XMR, xyz:SPCX, xyz:GOLD, SOL, and @166.

Long positions have been catastrophic: -$48,412 realised PnL on a 9.09% win rate across long episodes. Short positions have been the only source of edge: +$7,925 realised PnL on a 31.58% win rate. This asymmetry is stark and consistent. Yet the account has persisted in oversizing long positions into losses. The kPEPE trade on 8–14 January opened at a notional of $853,830—roughly 17x the starting balance—and closed for -$26,326. The ETH trade that followed immediately (8–14 January) opened at $987,830 notional and closed for -$24,587. Both were revenge trades following prior losses.

The account's three largest losses are kPEPE (-$26,326), ETH (-$24,587), and a BTC short on 7–10 June (-$10,917). All three are flagged as oversized relative to median loss size. The kPEPE and ETH losses occurred within the same 6-day window and triggered immediate re-entries into ETH and BTC at elevated notionals. The BTC short on 7–10 June was itself a revenge trade following a small xyz:SP500 loss, opened at $418,061 notional, and closed after 63.5 hours for -$10,917.

Fees have been modest in absolute terms ($6,424 gross) but represent material drag on a -$40,487 net loss. The account's win rate is 23.33% across 30 closed episodes, with a profit factor of 0.54 (indicating $0.54 of profit per $1 of loss) and an expectancy of -$1,350 per closed trade.

Trade quality

Win rate of 23.33% is below breakeven for most retail setups. Profit factor of 0.54 confirms the account loses more per loss than it wins per win. The win/loss ratio of 1.77 means average wins are 1.77x average losses in dollar terms, but this is overwhelmed by the 23% win rate: the math is -$1,350 expectancy per trade. Average win is $6,715; average loss is -$3,804. The account's longest loss streak is 17 consecutive closed trades. The longest win streak is 4.

These numbers describe an account with no statistical edge. The short side has shown some edge (31.58% win rate, +$7,925 PnL), but it has been overwhelmed by long-side losses and by oversized revenge trades that have erased any edge that existed.

Post-mortems

ETH long, 8–14 January 2026. Opened at an unknown entry price, closed at 3146.48 on 14 January after 148 hours. Maximum notional $987,830. Closed for -$24,587. Flagged as both oversized loser (21.16x median loss) and revenge trade following the kPEPE loss. No structural stop was in place. This was a capitulation-scale position taken immediately after a $26,326 loss on kPEPE, suggesting emotional re-entry rather than systematic risk management.

BTC short, 7–10 June 2026. Opened at 61,231.27, closed at 62,744.86 on 10 June after 63.5 hours. Maximum notional $418,061. Closed for -$10,917. Flagged as oversized loser (9.4x median loss) and revenge trade following a small xyz:SP500 loss on 13 May. An ATR-14 1H structural stop was set at 1.59% distance, but the trade moved against it and was closed at a loss. The rapid closure (2.6% adverse move) and the revenge-trade flag suggest this was a reaction trade rather than a conviction setup.

What the risk simulation reveals

Under a 1% hard stop rule applied historically, the account would have realised +$66,678 with a maximum drawdown of -6.92%, stopping 17 trades early. Under a 2% rule, simulated PnL would be +$133,355 with a -13.84% drawdown. Under a 4% rule, simulated PnL would be +$266,710 with a -27.67% drawdown. All three simulations assume the same 20.69% win rate, suggesting that the core issue is not trade selection but position sizing and loss management. A mechanical 1% stop would have converted this account from -81.6% to +67% in the same window, gross of fees.

Open positions

The account holds seven open positions, dominated by a short xyz:SP500 position: 96.773 contracts, entry price 7374.77, mark price 7569.70, notional $732,543 at 50x leverage on cross margin. The position has been held for 38 days since 2 June and is currently -$18,864 unrealised (-132.16% ROE). Liquidation price is 7588.37, approximately 19 basis points above the current mark. No stop is in place. Funding costs have accumulated to $2,088 all-time and $2,052 since opening.

The remaining six open positions are smaller: BTC long (1.32 contracts, -$839 unrealised), xyz:GOLD long (46.69 contracts, -$228 unrealised), xyz:SPCX short (68.06 contracts, +$362 unrealised), and three others with minimal notional. None have stops in place.

Honest summary

  • Short-side edge exists in the data. The account's 31.58% win rate and +$7,925 PnL on short trades is the only consistent positive signal. This suggests the trader may have some edge in short-side execution or timing, but it has been systematically erased by long-side losses and oversized revenge trades.
  • Revenge trading and position sizing are the primary failure modes. Five of the seven largest losses are revenge trades. Three of those five are oversized by 9x to 23x relative to median loss size. The kPEPE and ETH trades in January represent a $1.8M notional loss sequence taken on a $49K account within

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
1
Examples
  • BTC on Jun 6, 2026: re-entered at 61,142.78 after closing at 63,386.74 (Jun 6, 2026 prior close); outcome $8,064.
Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
4
Examples
  • xyz:GOLD on Jun 15, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome -$309.
  • xyz:SPCX on Jun 16, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome $362.
+2 more matching cycles
Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
5
Examples
  • kPEPE: -$26,326 realised loss; 22.7x median closed loss.
  • ETH: -$24,587 realised loss; 21.2x median closed loss.
+3 more matching cycles
Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
6
Examples
  • ETH on Jan 8, 2026: followed a -$26,326 loss; larger-than-normal size.
  • ETH on Jan 14, 2026: followed a -$24,587 loss; larger-than-normal size.
+4 more matching cycles
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.-$1,349.57
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+0.8%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.$66,678
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-6.9%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
17
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.$133,355
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-13.8%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
17
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.$266,710
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-27.7%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
17

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Jan 8 with $22k and ends at Jun 26 with $158k.Account value (USD)Date$159k$90k$22kJan 8May 14Jun 26

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
BTCshort$980,923$26,8312026-06-24
BTCshort$517,165$8,0642026-06-07
ETHlong$467,023$7,9582026-06-07
BTCshort$528,279$2,3172026-06-06
xyz:SPCXshort$18,889$1,1092026-06-19

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
kPEPE10.0%-$26,326
ETH2+50.0%-$16,628
BTC15+20.0%$8,011
xyz:SP50050.0%-$5,307
XMR10.0%-$1,532
xyz:SPCX2+100.0%$1,471
xyz:GOLD20.0%-$536
SOL1+100.0%$361
@16610.0%-$0
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