RRektrospect

0x87f9cd15f5050a9283b8896300f7c8cf69ece2cf

0x87f9...e2cf wallet audit

0x87f9...e2cf audit. -$27 realised trading PnL across 81 closed position cycles, using 119 public fills from Jun 13, 2025.

loss-dominatedA quick bucket assigned from realised trading PnL, closed position-cycle count, and whether the public fill source was capped. Data covered: Jun 13, 2025. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.Jun 13 dataThis audit used 119 public fills covering Jun 13, 2025. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Current account valueAccount value from Hyperliquid's public account state when this audit ran. This is a balance snapshot, not proof of lifetime deposits or withdrawals.$34,385,495Jun 13
Realised trading PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: Jun 13, 2025. Deposits and withdrawals are not counted as PnL. This is the visible public fill history used by this audit.-$270.0%
Max drawdownLargest fall from a previous balance high to a later low inside the data covered: Jun 13, 2025.0.0%81 closed position cycles
Win rateShare of closed position cycles that ended positive. Profit factor compares total winning realised PnL with total losing realised PnL.+1.2%0 profit factor
Total volumeGross notional traded across 119 reconstructed public fills. A position cycle can contain many individual fills.$103,48181 position cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $34,385,495 minus closed trading PnL -$27 = starting estimate $34,385,521). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out.

Data coveredThis audit used 119 public fills covering Jun 13, 2025. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.Jun 13, 2025

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the public fills used for this wallet, so the page should be read as 2 calendar days of visible trading history.

Public fills
119
Position cycles
81 closed
Limit
public fill cap not hit
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: Jun 13, 2025. It is not a prediction.$34,385,495
all visible fillsThis audit used 119 public fills covering Jun 13, 2025. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Jun 13 with $34M and ends at Jun 13 with $34M.Account value (USD)Date$34M$34M$34MJun 13Jun 13Jun 13
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Data used: 119 public fills from Jun 13, 2025; this is the actual visible trading span, not a preset last-week or last-month period.
  • This account is -$26.79 (-0.08%) on 81 closed BTC trades executed over 23 minutes on 13 June 2025.
  • The wallet shows no edge: 1.23% win rate, 0.07 win/loss ratio, -$0.33 expectancy per trade, and a 70-trade max loss streak.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • Micro-duration execution: All 81 trades lasted under 0.03 hours, with most under 0.01 hours. The account is executing scalp-like entries and exits with no holding period for thesis development or mean reversion.
  • Directional whipsaw with no recovery: Longs won 0% of the time; shorts won 2.44%. The account is being stopped out on both sides of the market within seconds, suggesting entries are reactive rather than directional.
  • Oversized losers relative to winners: The four largest losses are 3–5.66× the median loss. The single win was $0.02 on a $38.96 notional. The risk/reward profile is inverted: the account is taking large losses to capture tiny wins.
  • Fees are a material drag: $15.52 in fees on -$11.26 realised PnL means fees consumed 58% of the loss magnitude. At 100% maker, the account is paying to lose.
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

This account is -$26.79 (-0.08%) on 81 closed BTC trades executed over 23 minutes on 13 June 2025. The wallet shows no edge: 1.23% win rate, 0.07 win/loss ratio, -$0.33 expectancy per trade, and a 70-trade max loss streak. Four of the five largest losses are flagged as oversized relative to median loss size. Fees of $15.52 consumed 58% of the realised PnL, leaving the account worse off than the raw trading result suggests. The dominant pattern is rapid-fire micro-duration trades on BTC with consistent directional whipsaw and no recovery mechanism.

What the data shows

The account opened at 17:42:30 UTC on 13 June and closed its final trade at 18:05:58 UTC the same day—a 23-minute window. All 81 episodes are BTC only. The account started with an estimated balance of $34,385,521.46 and finished at $34,385,494.68, a decline of $26.79.

Longs lost $12.26 across an unspecified number of episodes with a 0% win rate. Shorts lost $14.52 with a 2.44% win rate. The asymmetry is stark: shorts won twice, longs never. The single winning trade was a short BTC entry at 105,303.0 on 13 June, closed at 105,209.0 for $0.02 profit. This trade lasted 0.01 hours and carried a max notional of $38.96—a micro-position that captured the only win in the dataset.

The top five losses total $5.31. The largest loss was a long BTC entry at 105,228.0 on 13 June, exited at 105,072.9 for -$1.61 in 0.01 hours. The second-largest was a short at 105,343.0, exited at 105,423.0 for -$1.15 in 0.03 hours. A third long at 105,388.0 exited at 105,303.0 for -$1.01 in 0.01 hours. A fourth short at 105,154.0 exited at 105,206.0 for -$0.86 in 0.0 hours. These four trades are all flagged as oversized losers, each 3–5.66 times the median loss size.

Behavioural flags reveal two averaging-down episodes on BTC shorts (13 June, 17:44 and 17:55 UTC), both loss-making. A FOMO re-entry occurred at 18:03:30 UTC, 3 seconds after closing a short at 105,209.0; the re-entry at 105,200.0 lost $0.39. A revenge trade opened at 17:59:14 UTC with $1,370.86 notional following a $0.34 loss.

Fees paid were $15.52 gross. The net fee drag was $15.52. Realised PnL before fees was -$11.26; after fees, -$26.79. Fees consumed 58% of the realised loss magnitude, meaning execution costs were the second-largest drag after directional error.

Trade quality

Win rate is 1.23% (1 win in 81 trades). Profit factor is 0.0 (no wins to offset losses). Expectancy is -$0.33 per trade. Win/loss ratio is 0.07, meaning for every winning trade, there are roughly 14 losing trades. Average win was $0.02; average loss was -$0.34. Max loss streak was 70 consecutive losses.

These metrics describe an account with no statistical edge. A 1% win rate on 81 trades is consistent with random entry and exit. The 70-trade loss streak rules out luck. The expectancy of -$0.33 per trade means the account loses money on every trade taken, on average, before fees are even considered.

Post-mortems

BTC long, 13 June 17:42–17:42 UTC, entry 105,228.0, exit 105,072.9, -$1.61 loss. Opened with $910.22 notional, closed in 0.01 hours. This is the largest loss in the dataset and flagged as oversized (5.66× median loss). The entry was at 105,228.0; the exit at 105,072.9 represents a 155-point drop in 36 seconds. Structural stop was set 3% away. The trade hit hard and fast with no time to recover.

BTC short, 13 June 17:55–17:55 UTC, entry 105,343.0, exit 105,423.0, -$1.15 loss. Opened with $1,088.19 notional, closed in 0.03 hours. Flagged as oversized (3.53× median loss). The short was entered at 105,343.0 and exited at 105,423.0, an 80-point adverse move. This trade also shows no recovery window; it was closed within minutes of entry.

What the risk simulation reveals

The risk simulator applies fixed stop-loss rules to the historical trade sequence. Under a 1% account-risk rule, the simulated PnL would have been -$211,409.33 with a max drawdown of -0.62%. Under 2%, simulated PnL would have been -$421,576.38 with a max drawdown of -1.24%. Under 4%, simulated PnL would have been -$838,211.45 with a max drawdown of -2.47%. Win rate remained constant at 23.46% across all simulations, indicating that tighter stops would have reduced loss magnitude but not improved the underlying directional accuracy. The simulator is gross of fees.

Open positions

No open positions. The account is flat.

Honest summary

  • Micro-duration execution: All 81 trades lasted under 0.03 hours, with most under 0.01 hours. The account is executing scalp-like entries and exits with no holding period for thesis development or mean reversion.
  • Directional whipsaw with no recovery: Longs won 0% of the time; shorts won 2.44%. The account is being stopped out on both sides of the market within seconds, suggesting entries are reactive rather than directional.
  • Oversized losers relative to winners: The four largest losses are 3–5.66× the median loss. The single win was $0.02 on a $38.96 notional. The risk/reward profile is inverted: the account is taking large losses to capture tiny wins.
  • Fees are a material drag: $15.52 in fees on -$11.26 realised PnL means fees consumed 58% of the loss magnitude. At 100% maker, the account is paying to lose.
  • Averaging down and revenge trading under stress: Two averaging-down episodes and one FOMO re-entry within 3 seconds of a loss suggest reactive decision-making during drawdown, not systematic trading.
  • Sample is real but extremely short: 81 trades in 23 minutes on a single instrument. The account has no track record outside this window.

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
1
Examples
  • BTC on Jun 13, 2025: re-entered at 105,200 after closing at 105,209 (Jun 13, 2025 prior close); outcome -$0.
Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
2
Examples
  • BTC on Jun 13, 2025: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome -$0.
  • BTC on Jun 13, 2025: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome -$1.
Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
4
Examples
  • BTC: -$1 realised loss; 4x median closed loss.
  • BTC: -$1 realised loss; 3.5x median closed loss.
+2 more matching cycles
Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
1
Examples
  • BTC on Jun 13, 2025: followed a -$0 loss; larger-than-normal size.
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.-$0.33
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+100.0%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.-$211,409
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-0.6%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
0
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.-$421,576
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-1.2%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
0
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.-$838,211
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-2.5%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
0

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Jun 13 with $34M and ends at Jun 13 with $34M.Account value (USD)Date$34M$34M$34MJun 13Jun 13Jun 13

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
BTCshort$39$02025-06-13

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
BTC81+1.2%-$27
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