Bottom line up front
Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history. This account is -1.57% in the data covered, down $2,658 on a starting balance of $169,495. The headline masks a sharper story: a profitable core edge in hyna:ETH and BTC shorts was overwhelmed by oversized losses in BTC longs, SOL shorts, and revenge trades that chased losses into larger positions. The deepest decline in this window reached -28.12%, from a highest balance of $217,014 on 17 June to a lowest balance of $136,099 on 13 May. Fees consumed $2,832 gross, leaving realised PnL at -$172 before costs. The dominant pattern is not poor entry logic but position sizing that scaled into losers and re-entries that compounded them.
What the data shows
The account opened on 3 May 2026 and closed 277 trades over 68 days in the data covered. Realised PnL sits at -$172 after fees, but the closed-trade result obscures the volatility: the account swung from $217,014 to $136,099 and back to $166,837 by the window close. This is not a steady bleed; it is a violent cycle of edge capture followed by deepest decline in this window recovery.
The money was made in two instruments. hyna:ETH generated $2,053 realised PnL across 39 episodes with a 53.85% win rate, driven by short-side edge: $1,633 came from shorts, only $419 from longs. BTC (non-hyna) added $549 across 80 episodes at 63.75% win rate, again skewed long ($459 vs $90 short). hyna:SOL contributed $128 across 37 episodes but with a 45.95% win rate, suggesting noise rather than edge. The losses came from hyna:BTC ($-1,243 across 30 episodes), SOL ($-3,643 across 70 episodes), and hyna:BCH ($-924 on a single trade).
The account's long side lost $1,214 across 53.28% win rate; the short side lost $1,444 across 55.71% win rate. Neither side is profitable in isolation. The asymmetry is not directional but positional: when the account won, it won small ($119.69 average win); when it lost, it lost large ($164.53 average loss). The profit factor is 0.87—for every dollar of gross profit, the account paid $1.15 in losses. Expectancy is -$9.60 per closed trade.
Fees paid $2,832 gross on $17.2M notional volume. The net fee drag is identical to gross fees, meaning no rebates offset execution costs. Maker percentage is 79.64%, so the account is not fighting liquidity, yet fees still consumed the entire realised PnL and then some.
Trade quality
Win rate is 54.51% across 277 closed trades. This is above 50% but profit factor of 0.87 reveals the core problem: wins are smaller than losses. The win/loss ratio of 0.73 confirms it—for every winning trade, the account loses 1.37x the win size on average. Expectancy of -$9.60 per trade means the account is underwater on a per-trade basis despite winning more than half the time.
This is a classic case of right direction, wrong sizing. The account can pick direction better than chance, but position sizing into losers and averaging down into underwater trades has inverted the edge. A 54.51% win rate with proper risk management would be profitable; instead, it is loss-making because losses are oversized relative to wins.
Post-mortems
hyna:BTC long, 8 July 2026, entry $62,703, exit $62,059, -$1,169 loss (16.4 hours).
This trade was flagged as averaging down, oversized loser, and revenge trade. The account opened at $62,703 and added to the position as it fell, reaching a max notional of $104,416. The position hit a maximum adverse excursion of -1.81% before closing at -1.13% realised loss. The structural stop was set at 4.0% (instrument default), but the account held through the stop and exited manually. This is the fourth-largest loss in the window and sits at the end of a sequence of losses that triggered re-entry behaviour.
hyna:SOL short, 19 May – 8 July 2026, entry $84.33, exit $81.46, -$1,143 loss (1,177 hours).
Opened as a revenge trade after a prior loss in hyna:SOL, this short ran for 49 days. The position reached a max notional of $97,806 and showed a maximum favourable excursion of 4.66% at one point, but the account held into a reversal. The structural stop was 0.73% (ATR 14 1h), yet the position was held through multiple breaches. This is a classic case of a winning trade (on paper) left to run into a loss because the account was chasing prior losses with oversized sizing.
What the risk simulator reveals
Under a 1% stop-loss rule applied historically, the account would have realised $1,535 profit with a deepest decline in this window of -15.87%, stopping out 44 trades early. Under 2%, simulated profit rises to $3,069 with a deepest decline of -31.5%. Under 4%, simulated profit reaches $6,138 with a deepest decline of -62.07%. The win rate across all three scenarios is 52.38%, lower than the actual 54.51%, because stops lock in small losses that the account later recovered from. The simulator is gross of fees, so actual net profit would be lower by approximately $2,832.
The key insight: mechanical stops would have prevented the five largest losses (all oversized) and turned the account profitable by $1.5k–$6.1k depending on stop tightness. The account's actual loss of $2,658 is the cost of discretionary hold-through on underwater positions.
Open positions
The account holds a single open BTC long: 0.4472 BTC, entry $63,978, mark $64,124, notional $28,673, 10x leverage on cross margin, held since 10 July 2026 (0 days visible). Unrealised PnL is $65.1 (2.28% ROE). The liquidation price is $52,526, providing $11,598 of downside buffer. No stop is in place. This position is still open; the outcome is unknown until closed, and the liquidation level remains the downside boundary.
Honest summary
- Directional accuracy is real. Win rate of 54.51% and primary edges in hyna:ETH shorts and BTC longs show the account can read direction better than chance. The problem is not entry logic; it is what happens after entry.
- Position sizing into losses is the core leak. Five of the top losses are flagged as oversized, and four of those five are also flagged as averaging down or revenge trades. The account scales notional into underwater positions, turning small losses into large ones. The hyna:BTC short on 4–5 May lost $1,464 on a max notional of $70,165 after averaging down; the hyna:SOL short held for 49 days and lost $1,143 on $97,806 notional after being opened as a revenge trade.