Bottom line up front
Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history. This account is -93.4% in the data covered, having started with approximately $888k and fallen to $58.6k. The highest balance in this window reached $2.74m on 15 April before the deepest decline in this window compressed the account to $27k on 14 May. The headline pattern is catastrophic: two oversized BTC shorts and one oversized BTC long consumed $846k in realised losses across 15 closed trades, while a 53% win rate on small winners and a 0.02 profit factor mask the fact that the account is mechanically insolvent on position sizing and leverage discipline.
What the data shows
The account opened on 9 April with $888k and immediately deployed extreme leverage into BTC shorts. The first trade—a short from 72,537 to 76,765 opened on 9 April and closed on 24 April—lost $515k on a notional position of $100.9m, a 298× multiple of the median loss size. This single trade consumed 62% of the starting capital. The structural ATR-based stop was set at 0.76% away from entry, yet the position was held through a 4.2% adverse move, suggesting either the stop was not respected or position size was set without regard to the stop distance.
Four days later, on 24 April, the account entered a long BTC position at 77,528, which fell to a 2.13% deepest decline in this window before recovering to a 6.8% gain. The trader exited on 12 May at 79,373, locking in a $322k loss despite the position being in profit at one point. The notional was $12.9m on $887k starting capital—a 14.5× leverage deployment that turned a winning trade into the second-largest loss in the window.
On 12 May, the account took a 5-hour BTC long from 80,675 to 80,476, losing $8k on $1m notional. By 15 May, after three consecutive losing trades, the account had fallen from $2.74m to $27k—a 99% decline in five days. The trader then re-entered a BTC short on 15 May at 79,256, closed it on 18 May at 77,394, and lost $1.7k. This trade is flagged as a FOMO re-entry following the previous close at 79,640 just 9 seconds earlier.
ETH trades were the only consistent edge: three closed episodes with 100% win rate and $6.7k realised profit. The largest ETH win was a short from 2,139 to 2,135 on 18–19 May, closed at $1.6k profit after 13 averaging-down events. The second-largest was a short from entry price null to 2,120 on 19 May, $3.5k profit in 12 hours.
BTC, by contrast, shows no edge: 11 episodes, 45% win rate, -$836k realised PnL. Longs lost $328k; shorts lost $508k. The account paid $43.4k in gross fees on $144.9m notional volume, a 0.03% blended rate consistent with a maker-heavy execution (0.21% maker). Net fee drag was $43.4k, or 5.5% of the realised loss magnitude.
Trade quality
Win rate of 53.33% is misleading: the account won 8 of 15 trades but the average win was $2,339 while the average loss was -$121,149. Profit factor of 0.02 means every dollar of gross profit was offset by $50 of gross loss. Expectancy of -$55,289 per trade reflects the catastrophic asymmetry. Win/loss ratio of 0.02 is the ratio of average win to average loss, confirming that the account's few winners cannot offset its few but massive losers. The max loss streak of 4 consecutive losses occurred during the 12–15 May collapse.
Post-mortems
BTC short, 9–24 April, entry 72,537, exit 76,765, -$515,163. This trade opened at the highest balance point in the window and represents the single largest loss. The position reached $100.9m notional on a $888k account, a 113× leverage ratio. The structural ATR stop was 0.76% away; the trade moved 5.8% against the entry before closing. The trade was held for 374 hours despite the stop being breached early. No evidence of a hard stop execution.
BTC long, 24 April–12 May, entry 77,528, exit 79,373, -$322,891. Opened four days after the first catastrophe, this trade was in profit by 6.8% at its best point but exited at a 2.37% gain, locking in a $322k loss on $12.9m notional. The structural stop was 0.79% away; the trade experienced a 2.13% adverse excursion before recovering. The exit occurred on 12 May, the same day as the third oversized loss and one day before the account fell to its lowest balance.
BTC short, 15–18 May, entry 79,256, exit 77,394, -$1,729. Flagged as a FOMO re-entry, this trade was opened 9 seconds after closing the previous BTC short at 79,640. The account had just fallen from $2.74m to $27k. The trade lost $1.7k on $1.5m notional, a minor loss in absolute terms but symptomatic of re-engagement after catastrophic deepest decline in this window.
ETH short, 18–19 May, entry 2,139, exit 2,135, +$1,590. This trade was the only profitable multi-day position and was entered after 13 averaging-down events. The position reached $1.2m notional and closed with a 0.48% maximum favourable excursion. It is the only trade in the top wins that shows averaging-down behaviour and still delivered profit.
What the risk simulator reveals
Under a 1% hard stop rule applied historically, the account would have realised -$106,240 with a 57% win rate and a deepest decline in this window of -13.21%. Under a 2% rule, simulated loss would be -$212,480 with a -26.43% deepest decline. Under a 4% rule, simulated loss would be -$424,961 with a -52.86% deepest decline. The simulator stopped one episode early under all three rules, indicating at least one trade would have been liquidated or margin-called before closing naturally. The actual loss of -$829,335 is nearly 2× the 4% rule outcome, confirming that the account operated with no meaningful stop discipline and allowed positions to run far beyond any rational risk boundary.
Open positions
The account holds two short positions with no stops in place. BTC short at 76,435 with 40× leverage is down $4,130 unrealised. ETH short at 2,116 with 25× leverage is down $356 unrealised. Neither position has a stop price recorded. Both are still open and the outcome is unknown until closed. The BTC position carries extreme downside risk given the 40× leverage and the absence of a protective stop.
Honest summary
- Visible strength: ETH trades show consistent edge—100% win rate on three closed episodes, $6.7k realised profit, and the ability to average down and still exit profitably on at