Bottom line up front
Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history. This account is -28.01% ($3.13M loss) in the data covered, with a highest balance in this window of $14.8M on 2026-01-28 and a lowest balance in this window of $854K on 2026-02-18—a deepest decline in this window of -94.25%. The core problem is asymmetric edge: shorts on oil futures worked (795% profit factor on CL and BRENTOIL), but long-side conviction trades failed systematically, with five oversized losses consuming all gains and then some. Averaging down on losing positions and revenge trades after large drawdowns compounded the damage.
What the data shows
The account opened with $11.2M in early December 2025 and reached $14.8M by late January 2026, suggesting an initial profitable run. That highest balance in this window was illusory. By mid-February, the account had collapsed to $854K—a loss of $14M in three weeks. The recovery from that lowest balance in this window has been partial and fragile; current balance sits at $8.05M.
The profit/loss split is stark. Shorts on crude oil (CL) and Brent oil (BRENTOIL) generated $795K in realised gains across two episodes in early April 2026, both closed within 195 hours with disciplined ATR-based stops. Long positions across 34 closed episodes lost $3.94M. The two largest single losses—HYPE ($1.12M, closed 2026-01-31) and MRVL ($390K, closed 2026-07-08)—account for 43% of total realised losses. Both were held for over 700 hours and both were re-entered after earlier losses in the same coin, suggesting emotional decision-making rather than systematic edge.
Fees paid total $11.4K on $37.3M in closed trade volume, a negligible drag on the headline PnL. The real cost is in position sizing and hold duration. The account held positions at 5–20x leverage across BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, and SUI for 160+ days in some cases, accumulating $1.1M in funding costs on open positions alone. Realised PnL is -$4.91M; unrealised PnL on current open positions is -$1.66M, meaning the account is underwater on both closed and open books.
Long versus short asymmetry is the defining feature: long positions won 6.67% of the time and lost $3.94M; short positions won 50% of the time and gained $807K. The account has no edge on the long side and should not be trading it.
Trade quality
Win rate is 13.89% across 36 closed episodes. Profit factor is 0.26—for every dollar won, the account lost $3.85. Expectancy is -$87K per trade. Win/loss ratio is 1.59 (average win $216.7K, average loss $136K), which is positive in isolation but meaningless when applied to a 13.89% win rate and a 0.26 profit factor. The account is losing money on nearly 9 out of 10 closed trades.
The max loss streak is 17 consecutive losses. The max win streak is 3. This is not variance; this is a broken system applied to the long side.
Post-mortems
HYPE long, opened 2025-12-17, closed 2026-01-31, -$1.12M loss.
This was the largest single loss in the data covered. The position reached a max notional of $1.98M and was held for 1,081 hours (45 days). The account closed it at $24.52 after it had collapsed from entry. This trade is flagged as an oversized loser and was the trigger for subsequent revenge trades. No structural stop was in place.
MRVL long, opened 2026-06-08, closed 2026-07-08, -$390K loss.
Opened as a revenge trade immediately after a $37.9K loss on XYZ100 short on the same day. Max notional reached $1.51M; held for 727 hours. Closed at $243.50. Flagged as both oversized loser and revenge trade. The pattern is clear: after a small loss, the account sized up aggressively into a different coin and held through a 30% decline without exiting.
What the risk simulation reveals
Under a 1% hard stop rule applied historically, the account would have realised -$120K with a max decline in this window of -3.2%, winning 33.33% of trades. Under 2%, the loss would be -$241K with a -6.31% decline. Under 4%, the loss would be -$481K with a -12.25% decline. All three scenarios assume stops were actually executed; the data shows zero stops in place on any current open position. The simulator reveals that position sizing and stop discipline are the only levers that would have prevented the -94% decline. The account's actual behaviour—no stops, averaging down, holding through 700+ hour drawdowns—is the inverse of what the simulator shows would have worked.
Open positions
BTC long dominates the open book: $10.29M notional, -$4.9K unrealised (-0.95% ROE), 20x leverage, cross margin, liquidation at $32,636. This position is still open; the outcome is unknown until closed, and the liquidation level remains the downside boundary.
ETH long is the second-largest exposure: $9.0M notional, -$362K unrealised (-38.67% ROE), 10x leverage, held since 2026-01-31 (160 days). This position is deeply underwater and has accumulated $694K in funding costs data-covered.
SOL long: $3.12M notional, +$11.8K unrealised (+1.89% ROE), 5x leverage, held 160 days. This is the only open position with positive unrealised PnL.
SUI long: $2.43M notional, -$389K unrealised (-138% ROE), 10x leverage, held 15 days. This is a recent addition and is already severely underwater.
HYPE long: $10.12M notional, -$469K unrealised (-22.15% ROE), 5x leverage, held 160 days, liquidation at $32.47. This is the same coin that generated the largest historical loss; the account is re-holding it at a lower entry but with no structural stop.
No stops are in place on any of the five open positions. Total open notional is $46.4M against a $8.05M account balance. Total unrealised loss is -$1.66M. Funding costs on open positions total $60.9K since entry on BTC and $76.4K on ETH alone.
Honest summary
- Shorts on oil futures showed genuine edge: 100% win rate on CL and BRENTOIL, closed within 195 hours, disciplined ATR-based stops, 795% profit factor. This is the only repeatable pattern in the data.
- Long-side conviction is a liability: 6.67% win rate, $3.94M loss, no structural stops, averaging down into losers, revenge trades after drawdowns. The account should not trade long positions.
- Oversized positions and no stops amplified losses: The two largest losses (HYPE and MRVL) reached $1.98M and $1.51M notional respectively and were held for 45 and 30 days