RRektrospect

0xaea8e3bd369217cc6e3e6abddf0da318fba8e59b

0xaea8...e59b wallet audit

Open BTC short dominates this wallet: $7,804,043 notional, $554,830 +132.8% unrealised, 20x cross, held at least 37 days, liquidation $88,138. Closed trades are supporting context: -$915,906 realised trading PnL across 7 closed position cycles, using the latest 10,000 public fills from May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit.

limited sampleLimited sample: only 7 closed position cycles are visible in the data covered (May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026). Raw metrics are shown, but behavioural conclusions stay caveated until there are at least 10 closed cycles. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.position-dominatedThe largest open position is larger than closed-trade volume ($5,933,294). The page leads with open exposure, and closed trades are supporting context.latest 10,000 fillsHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Dominant open positionThis wallet is led by live open exposure rather than closed trades. The trigger is open unrealised PnL greater than 2x closed realised PnL, or the largest open notional greater than closed-trade volume.Open BTC short dominates this wallet: $7,804,043 notional, $554,830 +132.8% unrealised, 20x cross, held at least 37 days, liquidation $88,138.

Closed trades still matter, but they are not the main account story here. The closed-trade sample covers May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026; the open-position figures are live account-state figures from Hyperliquid when the audit ran. The unrealised PnL is still open, not a locked result; liquidation at $88,138 remains the downside boundary for this position.

Position
BTC short
Open PnL
$554,830 (+132.8% ROE)
Notional
$7,804,043
Liquidation
$88,138
Read this as
entry $68,688 · mark $64,129 · held at least 37 days · 20x cross · $390,202 margin used
Open unrealised PnLLive mark-to-market profit or loss on current open positions from Hyperliquid account state. It is not closed or banked.$1,469,986+132.8% ROE
Open notionalCurrent notional value of the open positions. When this dwarfs closed-trade activity, the open position is the wallet's main story.$11,669,761BTC short
LiquidationLiquidation price reported by Hyperliquid for the dominant open position when available.$88,13820x cross
Closed realised PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026. This excludes the live unrealised PnL above.-$915,9067 closed cycles
Closed volumeGross notional from closed position cycles in the data covered. This is the comparison used to decide whether an open position dominates the wallet.$5,933,29415 total cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

This audit is position-dominated, so open unrealised PnL is shown separately from closed realised trading PnL. The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $6,153,939 minus closed trading PnL -$915,906 = starting estimate $7,069,845). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out. Older fills may also exist outside the latest 10,000-fill window.

Data coveredHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the latest 10,000 public fills Hyperliquid exposed for this wallet. Because the public fill source hit its cap, older trades may exist but are not included here.

Public fills
10,000
Position cycles
7 closed, 8 open
Limit
latest 10,000 fills only
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026. It is not a prediction.$6,153,939
latest fills onlyHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Jun 1 with $6.6M and ends at Jul 7 with $6.2M.Account value (USD)Date$6.7M$6.4M$6.1MJun 1Jun 15Jul 7
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Open BTC short dominates this wallet: $7,804,043 notional, $554,830 +132.8% unrealised, 20x cross, held at least 37 days, liquidation $88,138.
  • Closed-trade context: -$915,906 realised trading PnL across 7 closed position cycles in the data covered.
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The hold duration is a lower bound because the position was already open at the first visible fill for that market.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • Open BTC short dominates this wallet: $7,804,043 notional, $554,830 +132.8% unrealised, 20x cross, held at least 37 days, liquidation $88,138.
  • Closed-trade context: -$915,906 realised trading PnL across 7 closed position cycles in the data covered.
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 31, 2026 to Jul 8, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The hold duration is a lower bound because the position was already open at the first visible fill for that market.
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

Open BTC short dominates this wallet: $7.8M notional, $554.8k unrealised gain, 132.75% unrealised ROE, 20x cross leverage, held 37 days, liquidation at $88,137.96. This is still open exposure; the unrealised PnL is not locked in, and the final outcome is unknown until the position closes. The liquidation price sits $24k above current mark, providing a defined downside boundary. The account is -12.96% realised in the data covered, but the open position has masked a severe closed-trade loss of $1.1M across seven completed episodes. Sample is too small to draw behavioural conclusions from closed trades alone.

Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history.

What the data shows

The account opened on 31 May 2026 and has completed seven trades while holding eight open positions across BTC, ETH, and OP. The closed-trade record is stark: $1.1M realised loss against $5.9M gross closed volume, a 18.5% loss rate on completed episodes. The two largest losses—a $611k short on ANTHROPIC (opened 1 June, closed 15 June) and a $442k short on MU (opened 31 May, closed 1 June)—account for $1.05M of the damage. The ANTHROPIC trade carried a revenge-trade flag and ran against a 0.97% structural stop distance before being closed at a 2.84% maximum adverse excursion.

The open book tells a different story. Three short positions—BTC, ETH, and OP—carry combined unrealised gains of $1.47M. The BTC short, entered at $68,688 on 3 June, has accrued $554.8k in unrealised profit as the mark has fallen to $64,129. The OP short, with no visible entry date in the data covered, shows the largest ROE at 458.01% on a 5x position, though notional exposure is modest at $28k. ETH short contributes $8.3k unrealised. Funding has been a net drag: $57.8k paid on BTC, $4.8k on ETH, and $5.2k on OP, totalling $67.8k in funding costs across the open book.

Win rate on closed trades is 71.43%, but this masks the severity of the two largest losses. The two winning trades—a $51.4k short on MU (closed 7 July) and a $45.5k short on SPCX (closed 10 June)—are dwarfed by the two catastrophic losses. Fees paid total $379.73, negligible against the scale of realised losses.

Trade quality

Win rate of 71.43% is misleading when two losses consume the entire edge. The account has won four of seven closed episodes, but the profit factor is deeply negative: realised losses of $1.1M against realised gains of $86k. Expectancy per closed trade is -$157k. The structural stop on the ANTHROPIC trade was tight at 0.97% distance, yet the position was allowed to run 2.84% into maximum adverse excursion before being closed. Sample is too small to isolate whether this reflects stop discipline or reactive exit behaviour.

Post-mortems

ANTHROPIC short, 1–15 June. Entered at $1,677.23, exited at $1,618.90, loss of $611.3k on a $1.51M notional position. Held 345 hours. The trade carried a revenge-trade flag and hit 5.45% maximum favourable excursion before reversing into a 2.84% maximum adverse excursion. The structural stop was set at 0.97% distance,

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
1
Examples
  • vntl:ANTHROPIC on Jun 1, 2026: followed a -$442,125 loss; larger-than-normal size.
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.-$130,843.71
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+91.1%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.$145,304
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-1.1%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.$290,608
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-2.1%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.$581,217
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-4.3%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Jun 12 with $6.6M and ends at Jun 19 with $7.1M.Account value (USD)Date$7.1M$6.8M$6.6MJun 12Jun 19

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
xyz:MUshort$554,294$51,3752026-07-07
xyz:SPCXshort$157,208$45,5422026-06-10
vntl:OPENAIlong$140,213$40,4052026-06-15
@230long$570,793$1132026-06-23
xyz:SPCXshort$1,100$1082026-06-19

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
vntl:ANTHROPIC10.0%-$611,323
xyz:MU2+50.0%-$390,751
xyz:SPCX2+100.0%$45,650
vntl:OPENAI1+100.0%$40,405
@2301+100.0%$113
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