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0xb2cae590b41b381ad17174453805a6783ab99c63

0xb2ca...9c63 wallet audit

0xb2ca...9c63 audit. -$17,216,537 realised trading PnL across 3 closed position cycles, using 7,714 public fills from Aug 26, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025.

limited sampleLimited sample: only 3 closed position cycles are visible in the data covered (Aug 26, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025). Raw metrics are shown, but behavioural conclusions stay caveated until there are at least 10 closed cycles. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.Aug 26-Oct 10 dataThis audit used 7,714 public fills covering Aug 26, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Current account valueAccount value from Hyperliquid's public account state when this audit ran. This is a balance snapshot, not proof of lifetime deposits or withdrawals.$0Aug 26-Oct 10
Realised trading PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: Aug 26, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025. Deposits and withdrawals are not counted as PnL. This is the visible public fill history used by this audit.-$17,216,537-100.0%
Max drawdownLargest fall from a previous balance high to a later low inside the data covered: Aug 26, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025.-13.9%3 closed position cycles
Win rateShare of closed position cycles that ended positive. Profit factor compares total winning realised PnL with total losing realised PnL.0.0%0 profit factor
Total volumeGross notional traded across 7,714 reconstructed public fills. A position cycle can contain many individual fills.$60,011,0313 position cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $0 minus closed trading PnL -$17,216,537 = starting estimate $17,216,537). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out.

Data coveredThis audit used 7,714 public fills covering Aug 26, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.Aug 26, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the public fills used for this wallet, so the page should be read as 44 calendar days of visible trading history.

Public fills
7,714
Position cycles
3 closed
Limit
public fill cap not hit
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: Aug 26, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025. It is not a prediction.$0
all visible fillsThis audit used 7,714 public fills covering Aug 26, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Aug 26 with $17M and ends at Oct 10 with $0.Account value (USD)Date$17M$8.6M$0Aug 26Aug 27Oct 10
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Data used: 7,714 public fills from Aug 26, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025; this is the actual visible trading span, not a preset last-week or last-month period.
  • The sample is too small to draw reliable conclusions about this account's trading approach.
  • Three closed episodes across 44 days of activity resulted in -100% realised PnL: -$17.2m gross, with $15k in fees paid.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • The sample is too small to identify repeatable patterns or edge. Three episodes do not constitute a meaningful dataset for behavioural or statistical analysis.
  • The AVAX position was sized far beyond prudent risk management for a single trade, reaching $36m notional on what appears to be a modest starting balance.
  • No trades closed profitably, preventing any assessment of win conditions or edge identification.
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

The sample is too small to draw reliable conclusions about this account's trading approach. Three closed episodes across 44 days of activity resulted in -100% realised PnL: -$17.2m gross, with $15k in fees paid. The AVAX long opened 22 September at $31.12, ran to a notional position of $36m, and closed 10 October at $17.79 after 438 hours, flagged for averaging down and oversized loss. A WLFI short on 27 August closed immediately for -$4.68. No winning trades are recorded.

What the data shows

The account opened 26 August and closed its final position 10 October. Total gross volume was $60m across three episodes. The AVAX long dominates the loss: entry at $31.12 on 22 September, exit at $17.79 on 10 October, notional peak of $36m, realised loss of -$17.2m. The position was held 438 hours and flagged for both averaging down and oversized loss, indicating capital was added into a declining position. A structural stop was set at 4% distance from entry but was not triggered before manual exit. The WLFI short on 27 August was a minimal position ($121.64 notional) closed the same day for -$4.68. Fees of $14,978 were paid on $60m gross volume, representing 2.5 basis points of turnover.

Trade quality

Win rate is 0%. No trades closed profitably. Profit factor is undefined because there are no winning trades to offset losses. Expectancy is -$5.7m per closed episode. The account paid $14,978 in gross fees against -$17.2m in realised losses, so fees represent a small fraction of the total damage.

Post-mortems

AVAX long, 22 September to 10 October. Entry at $31.12, exit at $17.79, -$17.2m realised loss. Maximum notional position reached $36m. The trade was flagged for averaging down and oversized loss, meaning capital was deployed into a falling position and the position size relative to account equity was extreme. A structural stop was placed 4% below entry but the position was exited manually at a much larger loss.

WLFI short, 27 August. Opened and closed the same day at $0.30 exit price, -$4.68 loss on $121.64 notional. No flags attached.

Honest summary

  • The sample is too small to identify repeatable patterns or edge. Three episodes do not constitute a meaningful dataset for behavioural or statistical analysis.
  • The AVAX position was sized far beyond prudent risk management for a single trade, reaching $36m notional on what appears to be a modest starting balance.
  • No trades closed profitably, preventing any assessment of win conditions or edge identification.

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
1
Examples
  • AVAX on Sep 22, 2025: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome -$17,216,532.
Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
1
Examples
  • AVAX: -$17,216,532 realised loss; 3,675,170.7x median closed loss.
Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.-$5,738,845.56
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+0.0%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.-$31,297
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-0.2%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.-$62,594
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-0.4%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.-$125,188
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-0.8%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
1

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Aug 26 with $17M and ends at Sep 26 with $17M.Account value (USD)Date$17M$17M$17MAug 26Sep 26

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
AVAX20.0%-$17,216,532
WLFI10.0%-$5
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