0xe4c6ae25959d7fc66cf2dd5965fb78c5e09c4048
0xe4c6...4048 audit. -$435,204 realised trading PnL across 9 closed position cycles, using 3,306 public fills from Aug 4, 2025 to Jun 24, 2026.
The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $13,360 minus closed trading PnL -$435,204 = starting estimate $448,564). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out.
This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the public fills used for this wallet, so the page should be read as 324 calendar days of visible trading history.
The sample is too small to draw reliable conclusions about this account's edge or approach. Nine closed episodes across four instruments over 324 days leaves limited sample for behavioural analysis. The account is down 97.0% ($435,204 realised loss) on $37.6M gross volume, but with only nine closed trades, individual outliers dominate the narrative. A single short XYZ100 position—opened 14 April 2026, closed 5 June 2026—accounts for $660,289 of the loss. The sample is too small to separate signal from noise.
The account opened on 4 August 2025 and has completed nine closed episodes. Four instruments show activity: XYZ100 (2 episodes, -$661k), GOLD (1 episode, +$115k), ETH (2 episodes, +$62k), and BTC (3 episodes, +$43k). Realised PnL after fees stands at -$424,654. Gross fees paid were $4,068 on $38.2M gross volume, a fee ratio of 0.01%.
The largest loss is the XYZ100 short entered at 25,713.98 on 14 April 2026 and exited at 29,882.09 on 5 June 2026, a 52-day hold that lost $660,289 on a $4.7M notional position. The trade flagged averaging down and oversized loser behaviour. The structural stop (ATR 14, 1H) was set only 0.34% away, suggesting tight risk management intent that was not honoured during the hold.
The largest win is the GOLD long entered at 4,190.13 on 23 March 2026 and exited at 4,402.02 the same day, a 3.7-hour hold that gained $115,446 on a $2.4M notional position. This trade also flagged averaging down. The second-largest win is the ETH short entered at 2,286.07 on 5 August 2025 and exited at 2,279.45 on 18 March 2026, a 226-day hold that gained $62,064 on a $2.75M notional position, flagged as a FOMO re-entry.
Win rate is 66.67% (6 wins, 3 losses across nine closed episodes). Profit factor is 0.82—total wins divided by total losses. Expectancy is negative: average realised PnL per closed trade is -$47,184. The account is profitable on three of four instruments (GOLD, ETH, BTC) but the XYZ100 short loss overwhelms the combined edge from the other three.
XYZ100 short, 14 April – 5 June 2026: Entered at 25,713.98, exited at 29,882.09. Loss of $660,289 on $4.7M notional. The trade moved against entry immediately (MAE -15.09%), was held for 1,246 hours, and closed with a structural stop 0.34% away. Flags: averaging down and oversized loser. This single trade consumed all gains from the other eight closed episodes combined.
BTC long, 11 March 2026: Entered at 69,981.27, exited at 69,672.71 after 0.41 hours. Loss of $8,300 on $2.01M notional. Structural stop was 1.65% away. No behavioural flags. This was a scalp that failed.
No matching position cycles in the data covered.
Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.
Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.
The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.