RRektrospect

0xe86b057f5eb764c9738d6b0d38170befd0723664

0xe86b...3664 wallet audit

Open LIT short dominates this wallet: $1,837,167 notional, -$687,732 -299.2% unrealised, 5x cross, held at least 60 days, liquidation $5.0349. Closed trades are supporting context: $104,846 realised trading PnL across 120 closed position cycles, using the latest 10,000 public fills from May 11, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit.

exceptionalA quick bucket assigned from realised trading PnL, closed position-cycle count, and whether the public fill source was capped. Data covered: May 11, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.position-dominatedOpen unrealised PnL is more than 2x the absolute closed realised PnL ($104,846). The page leads with open exposure, and closed trades are supporting context.latest 10,000 fillsHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 11, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Dominant open positionThis wallet is led by live open exposure rather than closed trades. The trigger is open unrealised PnL greater than 2x closed realised PnL, or the largest open notional greater than closed-trade volume.Open LIT short dominates this wallet: $1,837,167 notional, -$687,732 -299.2% unrealised, 5x cross, held at least 60 days, liquidation $5.0349.

Closed trades still matter, but they are not the main account story here. The closed-trade sample covers May 11, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; the open-position figures are live account-state figures from Hyperliquid when the audit ran. The unrealised PnL is still open, not a locked result; liquidation at $5.0349 remains the downside boundary for this position.

Position
LIT short
Open PnL
-$687,732 (-299.2% ROE)
Notional
$1,837,167
Liquidation
$5.0349
Read this as
entry $1.7162 · mark $2.7431 · held at least 60 days · 5x cross · $367,433 margin used
Open unrealised PnLLive mark-to-market profit or loss on current open positions from Hyperliquid account state. It is not closed or banked.-$615,269-299.2% ROE
Open notionalCurrent notional value of the open positions. When this dwarfs closed-trade activity, the open position is the wallet's main story.$7,575,455LIT short
LiquidationLiquidation price reported by Hyperliquid for the dominant open position when available.$5.03495x cross
Closed realised PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: May 11, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. This excludes the live unrealised PnL above.$104,846120 closed cycles
Closed volumeGross notional from closed position cycles in the data covered. This is the comparison used to decide whether an open position dominates the wallet.$32,603,665174 total cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

This audit is position-dominated, so open unrealised PnL is shown separately from closed realised trading PnL. The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $2,330,525 minus closed trading PnL $104,846 = starting estimate $2,225,679). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out. Older fills may also exist outside the latest 10,000-fill window.

Data coveredHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 11, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.May 11, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the latest 10,000 public fills Hyperliquid exposed for this wallet. Because the public fill source hit its cap, older trades may exist but are not included here.

Public fills
10,000
Position cycles
120 closed, 54 open
Limit
latest 10,000 fills only
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: May 11, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. It is not a prediction.$2,330,525
latest fills onlyHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 11, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 11 with $2.2M and ends at Jul 10 with $2.3M.Account value (USD)Date$2.3M$2.3M$2.2MMay 11May 12Jul 10
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Open LIT short dominates this wallet: $1,837,167 notional, -$687,732 -299.2% unrealised, 5x cross, held at least 60 days, liquidation $5.0349.
  • Closed-trade context: $104,846 realised trading PnL across 120 closed position cycles in the data covered.
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 11, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The hold duration is a lower bound because the position was already open at the first visible fill for that market.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • Closed-trade edge is real: 70.83% win rate, 4.04 profit factor, and positive expectancy across 120 episodes demonstrate systematic edge in short-side execution, particularly in TON, ZEC, and VVV. The trader identifies setups and closes them profitably more often than not.
  • Leverage and concentration have inverted the edge: The LIT position is 1.75× the entire closed realised PnL and carries no stop. A single position now dominates risk and return. The account went from +$104,846 realised to -$615,269 unre
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

Open LIT short dominates this wallet: $1,837,167 notional, -$687,732 unrealised PnL, -299.16% unrealised ROE, 5× cross leverage, held 60 days, liquidation at $5.03. This is still open exposure; the unrealised loss is not locked in, and the final outcome remains unknown until the position closes. The liquidation level sits at $5.03 per token—a downside boundary that represents material risk given current mark price of $2.74. Beneath the dominant short sits a profitable closed-trade record of $104,846 realised PnL across 120 closed episodes, but that gain is dwarfed by the scale of the open deepest decline in this window. Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history.

What the data shows

The account opened on 11 May 2026 and has been active for 60 days. Across the data covered, closed trades generated $104,846 in realised PnL, but the account currently sits at $2,330,525 in balance against a starting estimate of $2,225,679—a net gain of $104,846 that is entirely offset by open unrealised losses totalling -$615,269. The LIT short alone accounts for -$687,732 of that loss.

The closed-trade record shows genuine edge. Sixty-one of 120 closed episodes were profitable (70.83% win rate), with a profit factor of 4.04 and expectancy of $873.72 per trade. Short positions outperformed long positions: shorts generated $79,390 realised PnL at 68.75% win rate, while longs contributed $25,456 at 73.21% win rate. By instrument, TON was the primary edge (100% win rate, $55,473 realised), followed by ZEC (100% win rate, $9,074), VVV (61.54% win rate, $15,458), and ETH (57.14% win rate, $10,724). SOL and PENDLE were clear drains: SOL lost $14,201 across 12 episodes at 50% win rate; PENDLE lost $3,400 across 6 episodes at 66.67% win rate.

Fees were minimal friction: $1,950 in gross fees paid against $104,846 in closed realised PnL, or 1.86% of gross closed trade volume. The account is 100% maker, indicating passive entry discipline or tight order placement.

The highest balance in this window was $3,857,225 on 15 June; the lowest was $1,929,669 on 11 June. The deepest decline in this window was -38.12%, a swing that reflects the scale of leverage deployed and the concentration risk embedded in the LIT position.

Trade quality

Win rate of 70.83% is strong. Profit factor of 4.04 means gross wins outweighed gross losses by a factor of four—a clean ratio. Expectancy of $873.72 per closed trade is positive and material. Win-loss ratio of 1.66 reflects an average win of $1,640 against an average loss of $987, a healthy asymmetry.

The data reveals a trader who executes with discipline on closed trades but has allowed a single position to become a portfolio-dominating liability.

Post-mortems

BTC short, 10 July 2026, 13.82 hours, entry $63,763.48, exit $64,150.43, loss -$7,907.55

Opened and closed on the same day with maximum notional of $984,844. The trade was flagged for both averaging down and oversized loss. Entry was 1.45% above the structural ATR-14 stop, and the position drifted against the trader by 1.45% before closing at a 0.99% loss. This was a revenge trade following a loss in INJ. The position was sized at 11× the median loss, indicating emotional escalation rather than systematic position management.

MON long, 12 May 2026, 11.83 hours, entry $0.03, exit $0.03, loss -$1,628.14

Opened and closed on 12 May with maximum notional of $79,892. Flagged for averaging down and oversized loss. The trade moved 2.09% against entry before closing. This was a revenge trade following a loss in VVV. Position size was 12× the median loss. The micro-cap nature of MON combined with high leverage and emotional sizing created a compounding risk.

Both post-mortems share a pattern: losses trigger immediate re-deployment at larger scale into different instruments, often within hours. Structural stops exist (ATR-14-based) but are set wide enough that they rarely prevent the initial damage.

What the risk simulation reveals

Under a 1% hard stop rule applied historically, the account would have generated $1,206,261 in simulated PnL with a deepest decline in this window of -2.17% and a 67.8% win rate. Under a 2% rule, simulated PnL would have been $2,412,523 with -3.46% deepest decline in this window. Under a 4% rule, simulated PnL would have reached $4,825,045 with -6.89% deepest decline in this window. These are gross-of-fees figures. The simulation stopped 10 episodes early across all three rules, indicating that tight stops would have prevented some of the largest losses but also some of the larger wins. The contrast between actual -38.12% deepest decline in this window and simulated -2.17% deepest decline in this window under 1% rules is stark: disciplined exit rules would have transformed the account trajectory entirely.

Open positions

The LIT short is the portfolio anchor: 669,741 tokens short at $1.72 entry, currently marked at $2.74, carrying -$687,732 unrealised loss at -299.16% ROE. No stop is in place. Liquidation sits at $5.03, which is 83.7% above current mark price—a material but not immediate boundary.

Four other open shorts are in place: BTC short ($342,117 notional, -$959 unrealised, -11.25% ROE, 40× leverage, no stop), ETH short ($232,826 notional, -$210 unrealised, -2.26% ROE, 25× leverage, no stop), SOL short ($199,957 notional, -$341 unrealised, -3.42% ROE, 20× leverage, no stop), and AVAX short ($9,059 notional, -$49 unrealised, -2.72% ROE, 5× leverage, no stop). One long is open: BNB long ($41,319 notional, -$1,713 unrealised, -39.81% ROE, 10× leverage, no stop). None of the five secondary positions carry stops. Total open notional is $7,575,455 against margin used of $401,709.

Honest summary

  • Closed-trade edge is real: 70.83% win rate, 4.04 profit factor, and positive expectancy across 120 episodes demonstrate systematic edge in short-side execution, particularly in TON, ZEC, and VVV. The trader identifies setups and closes them profitably more often than not.
  • Leverage and concentration have inverted the edge: The LIT position is 1.75× the entire closed realised PnL and carries no stop. A single position now dominates risk and return. The account went from +$104,846 realised to -$615,269 unre

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
23
Examples
  • SOL on Jul 9, 2026: re-entered at 78.32 after closing at 93.53 (Jul 9, 2026 prior close); outcome $37.
  • SOL on Jul 9, 2026: re-entered at 77.88 after closing at 78.07 (Jul 9, 2026 prior close); outcome -$3.
+21 more matching cycles
Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
50
Examples
  • VVV on May 11, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome -$88.
  • VVV on May 11, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome $4,019.
+48 more matching cycles
Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
11
Examples
  • SOL: -$16,082 realised loss; 259.6x median closed loss.
  • HYPE: -$786 realised loss; 12.7x median closed loss.
+9 more matching cycles
Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
10
Examples
  • HYPE on May 11, 2026: followed a -$16,082 loss; larger-than-normal size.
  • ZEC on May 11, 2026: followed a -$88 loss; larger-than-normal size.
+8 more matching cycles
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.$873.72
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+100.0%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.$1,206,261
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-2.2%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
10
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.$2,412,523
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-3.5%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
10
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.$4,825,045
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-6.9%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
10

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 12 with $2.1M and ends at Jul 10 with $4.6M.Account value (USD)Date$4.6M$3.4M$2.1MMay 12May 12Jul 10

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
TONshort$1,003,712$51,6712026-05-12
SUIshort$274,503$11,1402026-07-10
ETHshort$285,858$6,9942026-05-12
VVVshort$72,412$6,3452026-05-12
FARTCOINshort$159,891$5,7352026-07-10

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
TON11+100.0%$55,473
VVV13+61.5%$15,458
SOL12+50.0%-$14,201
SUI1+100.0%$11,140
ETH7+57.1%$10,724
ZEC6+100.0%$9,074
FARTCOIN8+62.5%$5,840
DASH1+100.0%$4,193
PENDLE6+66.7%-$3,400
MON4+75.0%$3,198
HYPE12+58.3%$3,014
BTC21+85.7%$1,632
INJ8+62.5%$934
kBONK1+100.0%$903
XRP1+100.0%$854
TIA10.0%-$698
WLFI2+50.0%$587
XMR1+100.0%$486
BNB10.0%-$433
ADA2+100.0%$303
UNI10.0%-$235
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