RRektrospect

0xe86b057f5eb764c9738d6b0d38170befd0723664

0xe86b...3664 wallet audit

0xe86b...3664 audit. $73,292 realised trading PnL across 100 closed position cycles, using the latest 10,000 public fills from May 10, 2026 to May 13, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit.

exceptionalA quick bucket assigned from realised trading PnL, closed position-cycle count, and whether the public fill source was capped. Data covered: May 10, 2026 to May 13, 2026. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.latest 10,000 fillsHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 10, 2026 to May 13, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Current account valueAccount value from Hyperliquid's public account state when this audit ran. This is a balance snapshot, not proof of lifetime deposits or withdrawals.$3,258,475latest 10,000 fills
Realised trading PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: May 10, 2026 to May 13, 2026. Deposits and withdrawals are not counted as PnL. Older public fills may exist outside this audit.$73,292+2.3%
Max drawdownLargest fall from a previous balance high to a later low inside the data covered: May 10, 2026 to May 13, 2026.-0.9%100 closed position cycles
Win rateShare of closed position cycles that ended positive. Profit factor compares total winning realised PnL with total losing realised PnL.+68.0%2.3 profit factor
Total volumeGross notional traded across 10,000 reconstructed public fills. A position cycle can contain many individual fills.$43,826,807153 position cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $3,258,475 minus closed trading PnL $73,292 = starting estimate $3,185,183). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out. Older fills may also exist outside the latest 10,000-fill window.

Data coveredHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 10, 2026 to May 13, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.May 10, 2026 to May 13, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the latest 10,000 public fills Hyperliquid exposed for this wallet. Because the public fill source hit its cap, older trades may exist but are not included here.

Public fills
10,000
Position cycles
100 closed, 53 open
Limit
latest 10,000 fills only
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: May 10, 2026 to May 13, 2026. It is not a prediction.$3,258,475
latest fills onlyHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 10, 2026 to May 13, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 10 with $3.2M and ends at May 13 with $3.3M.Account value (USD)Date$3.3M$3.2M$3.2MMay 10May 12May 13
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 10, 2026 to May 13, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The account is profitable in this window, returning 2.3% on $3.18M starting capital to reach $3.26M, but the headline masks severe structural problems: two catastrophic losses (SOL short -$19.2K and ZEC short -$18.7K) were offset by a single outsized win (TON short +$66.7K).
  • The account exhibits textbook revenge-trade and oversized-loser patterns, with five open positions carrying no stops despite leverage up to 40x.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • Visible strength: Short-side directional bias has generated $56.8K on a 65.4% win rate. TON and
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

Only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history. The account is profitable in this window, returning 2.3% on $3.18M starting capital to reach $3.26M, but the headline masks severe structural problems: two catastrophic losses (SOL short -$19.2K and ZEC short -$18.7K) were offset by a single outsized win (TON short +$66.7K). The account exhibits textbook revenge-trade and oversized-loser patterns, with five open positions carrying no stops despite leverage up to 40x. The data covered is only 2 days old and contains 100 closed episodes; the pattern is unmistakable but the sample remains young.

What the data shows

This account opened on 10 May 2026 and has traded continuously for 2 days across 12 instruments. The account arc is volatile: it opened at $3.18M, peaked at $3.21M on 11 May, and currently sits at $3.26M. The deepest decline in this window was -0.89%, a modest figure that obscures the underlying volatility in individual positions.

Money is made almost entirely on TON and ETH shorts. TON short (opened 10 May at 2.43, closed 12 May at 2.38) generated $66.7K on a $1M notional position. ETH short (opened 10 May at 2358.13, closed 12 May at 2323.29) added $7.7K. These two trades account for $74.4K of the $73.3K net profit. Every other instrument either lost money or contributed marginal gains.

Money is lost in concentrated, violent drawdowns. SOL short (opened 10 May at 96.66, closed 12 May at 95.45) lost $19.2K despite a favourable exit price; the position was sized at $2.12M notional with a 4% structural stop, meaning the account was exposed to a $84K loss if SOL moved against it. ZEC short (opened and closed 10 May, exit at 573.92) lost $18.7K on a $464K notional position with no recorded entry price or stop. VVV short lost $7.2K. BTC long lost $2.5K. These five trades account for $47.6K in losses.

Fees paid total $1.75K on $43.8M gross volume, a 4 basis-point drag. The net fee impact is immaterial relative to the PnL swings, but realised PnL before fees is actually -$96.9K, meaning the account is profitable only because of unrealised gains on open positions and the TON/ETH short wins. This is a critical distinction: the closed-trade edge is negative.

Long versus short shows a clear directional bias. Shorts generated $56.8K (65.4% win rate) while longs generated $16.4K (70.8% win rate). The short-side edge is real but concentrated in two trades; the long-side edge is broader but smaller in absolute terms.

Trade quality

Win rate is 68%, profit factor is 2.3x, and expectancy is $732.92 per closed episode. These metrics are superficially strong. However, they are heavily skewed by the TON win. The win/loss ratio of 1.08 means average winners ($1,909) are only 8% larger than average losers ($1,766), which is thin margin for a 68% win rate to be sustainable. The max loss streak is 4 consecutive losses, and the max win streak is 10 consecutive wins—the latter is recent and may reflect a lucky run rather than edge.

The profit factor of 2.3x is respectable but fragile. With 100 closed episodes, a single $20K loss can swing the entire metric. The account is currently running on the back of one exceptional trade and a handful of medium wins; the base case is negative.

Post-mortems

SOL short, opened 10 May at 96.66, closed 12 May at 95.45, -$19,170.73. This was a revenge trade following a $18.7K loss on ZEC minutes earlier. The position was sized at $2.12M notional (40x leverage on a $53M account), making it 18x the median loss size. The trade had a maximum adverse excursion of -0.74%, meaning it moved against the entry immediately, yet the position was held for 47 hours before being closed at a small profit on price (95.45 vs 96.66 entry) but a large loss on fees and slippage. The structural stop was 4% away, which would have cost $84K if triggered. This is the single largest loss in the data covered and the clearest evidence of loss-chasing under emotional pressure.

ZEC short, opened and closed 10 May, exit at 573.92, -$18,749.13. No entry price is recorded, suggesting a market order or rapid fill sequence. The position was $464K notional on a $3.18M account (13.6% of capital in a single trade). Duration was 2.14 hours. This loss occurred immediately after the VVV short loss and triggered the SOL revenge trade. The absence of entry price data suggests either a data gap or a position opened and closed in rapid succession without a clear plan. This is the second-largest loss and the most opaque trade in the set.

What the risk simulation reveals

Under a 1% stop-loss rule applied historically, the account would have realised $185.3K (gross of fees) with a maximum decline of -3.83%. Under 2%, it would have realised $370.7K with a -7.51% decline. Under 4%, it would have realised $741.4K with a -14.44% decline. These are counterfactual simulations showing what would have happened if stops had been in place; they do not include fees. The fact that the 1% rule would have prevented 8 early exits and still delivered positive PnL suggests that the account's current profitability is entirely dependent on letting winners run and cutting losers quickly—a discipline it is not currently practising.

Open positions

Five positions are open with no stops in place:

  • BTC long at 80,863.50 (40x leverage), +$344.94 unrealised. Notional exposure is approximately $3.23M. A 2.5% move against the position would wipe out the entire account equity.
  • ETH short at 2,298.76 (25x leverage), -$300.64 unrealised. Notional exposure is approximately $1.44M.
  • SOL short at 94.9616 (20x leverage), -$1,293.59 unrealised. Notional exposure is approximately $1.90M.
  • AVAX short at 9.5463 (5x leverage), -$6,392.69 unrealised. Notional exposure is approximately $47.7M. This position is underwater and sized larger than the account balance.
  • BNB long at 667.78 (10x leverage), +$188.67 unrealised. Notional exposure is approximately $6.68M.

Combined notional exposure across these five positions is approximately $61M against a $3.26M account balance. The absence of stops on any position, combined with leverage up to 40x, means the account is one adverse 3-4% move away from liquidation.

Honest summary

  • Visible strength: Short-side directional bias has generated $56.8K on a 65.4% win rate. TON and

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
22
Examples
  • HYPE on May 10, 2026: re-entered at 42.49 after closing at 43.38 (May 10, 2026 prior close); outcome $27.
  • HYPE on May 11, 2026: re-entered at 41.45 after closing at 42.78 (May 11, 2026 prior close); outcome $220.
+20 more matching cycles
Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
40
Examples
  • ETH on May 10, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome $7,672.
  • HYPE on May 10, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome -$78.
+38 more matching cycles
Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
13
Examples
  • ETH: -$2,052 realised loss; 18.9x median closed loss.
  • VVV: -$763 realised loss; 7x median closed loss.
+11 more matching cycles
Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
9
Examples
  • TON on May 10, 2026: followed a -$763 loss; larger-than-normal size.
  • SOL on May 10, 2026: followed a -$18,749 loss; larger-than-normal size.
+7 more matching cycles
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.$732.92
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+100.0%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.$185,348
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-3.8%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
8
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.$370,696
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-7.5%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
8
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.$741,393
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-14.4%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
8

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 12 with $3.2M and ends at May 13 with $3.5M.Account value (USD)Date$3.6M$3.3M$3MMay 12May 12May 13

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
TONshort$1,003,712$66,7042026-05-12
ETHshort$285,858$7,6722026-05-12
ZECshort$274,129$7,4392026-05-11
VVVshort$72,412$6,3452026-05-12
ETHlong$346,369$4,3222026-05-13

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
TON11+100.0%$70,506
SOL20.0%-$19,172
ETH4+75.0%$9,952
VVV15+60.0%$8,634
ZEC12+66.7%-$6,067
BTC12+75.0%$2,478
MON4+75.0%$2,020
HYPE15+60.0%$1,798
INJ8+62.5%$1,439
WLFI2+50.0%$709
PENDLE6+83.3%$697
TIA10.0%-$540
XMR1+100.0%$516
BNB10.0%-$432
XRP1+100.0%$405
UNI2+50.0%$170
APT1+100.0%$170
DOGE1+100.0%$141
BERA10.0%-$132
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