Bottom line up front
Open BTC long dominates this wallet: $19.45M notional, $167,829 unrealised gain, 34.81% unrealised ROE, 40x leverage, cross margin. This position remains open and the unrealised PnL is not locked in; the liquidation boundary sits at $40,703, representing material downside risk. The closed-trade record across the data covered is loss-making: -$62,847 realised PnL after $68,614 in fees, with a deepest decline in this window of -85.1% from the highest balance of $26.6M to the lowest of $3.97M. The account is dominated by open leverage exposure that dwarfs the realised loss; the final outcome depends entirely on whether the BTC position and the four other open longs (ETH, DOGE, CRV, NEAR) survive their current underwater positions or are forced to realise further losses.
What the data shows
This wallet has been active for 275 days across the data covered, executing 40 total episodes (23 closed, 17 open). The account started with approximately $9.76M and currently holds $9.69M in cash, but carries $36.48M in open notional exposure across five long positions. The closed-trade record is instructive: 39.13% win rate, 0.95 profit factor, and -$2,732 expectancy per trade. Fees consumed $68,614 of gross volume, and the net realised loss of -$62,847 sits just above breakeven only because the account clawed back $281,627 from long positions against $344,474 in short-side losses.
The BTC position is the outlier. Across seven closed BTC episodes, the account realised $530,323 in net profit—the only instrument with a coherent edge. However, the short side of BTC has been toxic: two short episodes (including a -$192,143 loss on 9-10 July 2025 when BTC rallied from $111,006 to $113,435 in 23 hours) wiped out gains and triggered revenge trading. The account opened a $10M BTC long on 10 July 2025 immediately after the short loss, then re-entered again on 11 July and 17 July with similar sizing. The 17 July entry eventually closed on 17 October 2025 for $831,063 profit, but the pattern is unmistakable: losses on one side of BTC prompt oversized re-entries on the other.
Outside BTC, the account has no edge. MKR, HYPE, RESOLV, SOL, VIRTUAL, and CRV all produced losses. The MKR trade alone—opened 13 June 2025 at $1,920.68, exited 5 September 2025 at $1,705.13—cost $547,103, a position that reached $2.27M notional and never recovered from a -19.12% maximum adverse excursion. HYPE lost $194,530 across two episodes. The wins in AAVE ($103,613), UNI ($70,198), and LTC ($64,865) were small and infrequent, insufficient to offset the structural losses.
The open book is a mirror of this dysfunction. ETH is underwater by $305,951 (-50.19% ROE) after 348 days held since 13 June 2025, with $1.23M in cumulative funding costs. DOGE is catastrophically underwater: -$560,547 (-399.93% ROE) on a 10x leveraged position entered 5 February 2026. CRV is down $250,736 (-595.21% ROE) after 350 days. Only NEAR shows a small gain (+$13,897). The BTC long is the only position with material unrealised profit, and it carries the highest leverage (40x) and the tightest liquidation boundary.
Trade quality
Win rate of 39.13% with a profit factor of 0.95 means the account is losing money on a per-trade basis. The win/loss ratio of 1.48 indicates that winning trades average $141,597 while losing trades average -$95,515, but the win rate is too low to overcome this asymmetry. Expectancy of -$2,732 per trade is the bottom line: every closed trade, on average, destroys capital after fees. The max loss streak of 7 consecutive losses and the max win streak of only 4 demonstrate that the account has no consistent signal and is vulnerable to extended drawdowns. Fees of $68,614 on $107.66M in closed gross volume represent 0.064% of closed volume—reasonable execution costs, but they arrived on top of a fundamentally unprofitable trading strategy.
Post-mortems
MKR long, 13 June – 5 September 2025. Entry price $1,920.68, exit $1,705.13, loss -$547,103. Position reached $2.27M notional. The trade was underwater from entry (maximum adverse excursion -19.12%) and never recovered (maximum favourable excursion only -3.68%). This was the single largest loss in the closed record and sits 10.12x the median loss size. The structural stop distance was 4.05% based on ATR(14,1h), but the position was allowed to run to a -28.5% loss before exit. No evidence of risk management.
HYPE long, 18 July – 27 August 2025. Entry price unavailable, exit $47.20, loss -$194,530. Position reached $2.20M notional. This was the second-largest loss, 3.6x the median loss size. The trade was held for 945 hours and closed with no entry price recorded, suggesting a complex or rolled position. The loss is structural, not a timing miss.
BTC short, 9–10 July 2025. Entry $111,005.66, exit $113,434.98, loss -$192,143. Position reached $9.58M notional. This 23-hour short was immediately followed by a revenge trade: a $10M BTC long opened on 10 July 2025 at 20:36 UTC. The short loss triggered the first of five consecutive BTC re-entries over the next week, each at ~$10M notional and 40x leverage. This is the clearest evidence of loss-driven position-sizing escalation in the record.
What the risk simulation reveals
The risk simulator applies historical stop-loss rules to the closed-trade record. Under a 1% stop rule, the account would have realised -$431,889 with a maximum decline of -4.19%, stopping out 2 trades early. Under 2%, the loss expands to -$863,779 with a -8.39% decline. Under 4%, the loss reaches -$1.73M with a -16.78% decline. These are gross-of-fees figures. The simulation shows that mechanical stops would have prevented the catastrophic MKR and HYPE losses but would have locked in losses on other positions that eventually recovered. The account's actual maximum decline of -85.1% far exceeds what any reasonable stop rule would have produced, indicating that the account was not using stops and allowed positions to decay far beyond any rational risk boundary.
Open positions
BTC long, 261.2 contracts, $19.45M notional, 40x leverage, cross margin. Entry $73,828.40, mark $74,471, unrealised gain $167,829 (34.81% ROE). Liquidation price $40,703.32. No stop in place. This position is the account