RRektrospect

0x77375a8c9d13bf79afb2a87f1b0ac1dfd5f5bf66

0x7737...bf66 wallet audit

Open LIT long dominates this wallet: $13,169,633 notional, $6,886,201 +548.0% unrealised, 5x cross, held at least 42 days. Closed trades are supporting context: -$1,616,910 realised trading PnL across 220 closed position cycles, using the latest 10,000 public fills from Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit.

loss-dominatedA quick bucket assigned from realised trading PnL, closed position-cycle count, and whether the public fill source was capped. Data covered: Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.position-dominatedOpen unrealised PnL is more than 2x the absolute closed realised PnL ($1,616,910). The page leads with open exposure, and closed trades are supporting context.latest 10,000 fillsHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Dominant open positionThis wallet is led by live open exposure rather than closed trades. The trigger is open unrealised PnL greater than 2x closed realised PnL, or the largest open notional greater than closed-trade volume.Open LIT long dominates this wallet: $13,169,633 notional, $6,886,201 +548.0% unrealised, 5x cross, held at least 42 days.

Closed trades still matter, but they are not the main account story here. The closed-trade sample covers Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026; the open-position figures are live account-state figures from Hyperliquid when the audit ran. The unrealised PnL is still open, not a locked result, so the final outcome is unknown.

Position
LIT long
Open PnL
$6,886,201 (+548.0% ROE)
Notional
$13,169,633
Liquidation
n/a
Read this as
entry $1.2958 · mark $2.7159 · held at least 42 days · 5x cross · $2,633,927 margin used
Open unrealised PnLLive mark-to-market profit or loss on current open positions from Hyperliquid account state. It is not closed or banked.$6,017,214+548.0% ROE
Open notionalCurrent notional value of the open positions. When this dwarfs closed-trade activity, the open position is the wallet's main story.$27,150,600LIT long
LiquidationLiquidation price reported by Hyperliquid for the dominant open position when available.n/a5x cross
Closed realised PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026. This excludes the live unrealised PnL above.-$1,616,910220 closed cycles
Closed volumeGross notional from closed position cycles in the data covered. This is the comparison used to decide whether an open position dominates the wallet.$67,203,016264 total cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

This audit is position-dominated, so open unrealised PnL is shown separately from closed realised trading PnL. The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $38,064,858 minus closed trading PnL -$1,616,910 = starting estimate $39,681,768). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out. Older fills may also exist outside the latest 10,000-fill window.

Data coveredHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the latest 10,000 public fills Hyperliquid exposed for this wallet. Because the public fill source hit its cap, older trades may exist but are not included here.

Public fills
10,000
Position cycles
220 closed, 44 open
Limit
latest 10,000 fills only
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026. It is not a prediction.$38,064,858
latest fills onlyHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Sep 17 with $40M and ends at Jul 8 with $38M.Account value (USD)Date$40M$39M$38MSep 17Mar 19Jul 8
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Open LIT long dominates this wallet: $13,169,633 notional, $6,886,201 +548.0% unrealised, 5x cross, held at least 42 days.
  • Closed-trade context: -$1,616,910 realised trading PnL across 220 closed position cycles in the data covered.
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The hold duration is a lower bound because the position was already open at the first visible fill for that market.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • Visible strength: Short-side edge on SOL and ETH in the closed record. The account has demonstrated the ability to identify and execute profitable short trades in these two instruments, generating $368K and $236K respectively. The top three closed wins are all shorts (SOL +$397K, ETH +$359K, UNI +$36K).
  • Visible weakness: Systematic long-side losses and catastrophic oversized revenge trades. GOLD, BRENTOIL, XPL, and ZEC have zero edge and have collectively destroyed $1M+. Revenge sizing after losses (GOLD, BRENTOIL, OP, UNI, SOL, BTC, ETH) is a repeated pattern flagged in the behavioural data. The account sizes positions at 3–50x median loss after prior losses, amplifying downside.
  • Data scope caveat: Only the most recent 10,000 public fills are visible. The account has been active for 295 days; earlier history is not included in this analysis. The LIT position's 42-day hold and $6.89M unrealised gain are the primary driver of current account value, but this gain is unrealised and subject to mark-to-market risk.
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

Open LIT long dominates this wallet: $13.17M notional, $6.89M unrealised gain, 547.97% unrealised ROE, 5x cross margin, held 42 days. This is still open exposure; the unrealised PnL is not locked in, and the final outcome is unknown until the position closes. The account is -4.07% overall in the data covered, but only the most recent public fills are visible, so this audit covers the data covered rather than full account history. The headline story is a single outsized long position offsetting systematic losses across 220 closed trades: the account has lost $1.7M realised PnL after fees, with a 15.45% win rate, 0.35 profit factor, and a deepest decline in this window of -59.98%. The LIT position is the only thing keeping the account above water.

What the data shows

This wallet has been active for 295 days across the data covered, executing 264 total episodes (220 closed, 44 open). The closed-trade record is unambiguously loss-making: realised PnL stands at -$1.7M after $14.4K in gross fees. The account started the window with an estimated $39.68M and currently holds $38.06M, but the path between those points reveals severe deepest decline in this window. The highest balance in this window was $38.53M on 2026-07-06; the lowest balance was $7.17M on 2026-01-21—a deepest decline in this window of -59.98%.

Long trades have been the primary source of damage. Long-side realised PnL is -$1.35M across 71 episodes with a 14.04% win rate. Short-side realised PnL is -$271K across 95 episodes with a 15.95% win rate. The asymmetry is stark: longs are losing nearly five times as much as shorts, yet both sides are underwater. By instrument, only SOL and ETH show any edge: SOL realised $368K across 13 episodes (38.46% win rate), and ETH realised $236.6K across 20 episodes (20% win rate). Every other instrument—GOLD, BRENTOIL, XPL, ZEC, WLD, PLTR, AXS, OP, BTC—has zero or negative edge. GOLD alone cost $529.8K across 3 episodes. XPL cost $223.7K across 7 episodes. These are not minor leaks; they are the account's structural problem.

Fees are immaterial relative to the realised loss. Gross fees paid total $14.4K against a $1.7M loss, so execution costs are not the story. The story is position selection and sizing.

Trade quality

Win rate of 15.45% means roughly 1 in 6.5 closed trades made money. Profit factor of 0.35 means for every dollar won, the account lost $2.86. Expectancy is -$7,349.59 per closed episode. The win/loss ratio of 1.91 shows that when the account wins, it wins $25.6K on average; when it loses, it loses $13.4K on average. That asymmetry—larger wins than losses—should be protective, but it is overwhelmed by the frequency of losses. A 15% win rate cannot sustain a business model.

Post-mortems

GOLD long, opened 2026-03-19, closed 2026-04-10: max position notional $3.66M, exited at 4675.91, loss -$356,973.25. Flagged as oversized loser and revenge trade. Held 532 hours. This was a revenge entry following an earlier GOLD loss the same day (see below), and it was sized at 3.66x the median loss. The position drifted for over three weeks before being closed at a substantial loss.

GOLD long, opened 2026-03-19, closed 2026-03-19: max position notional $4.50M, exited at 4677.98, loss -$172,891.53. Flagged as oversized loser and revenge trade. Opened and closed the same day. This was the initial loss that triggered the revenge trade above. Position was sized at 4.5x the median loss on a same-day close.

Both GOLD trades are textbook revenge sizing: after the first loss, the account immediately re-entered at 4.5x median loss size, held it for three weeks, and then closed it for another $357K loss. The combined damage from these two episodes is $529.8K.

What the risk simulation reveals

Under a 1% stop-loss rule applied historically, the account would have realised $9.45M with a -2.3% deepest decline in this window and a 40% win rate. Under 2%, $18.9M with -4.54% deepest decline. Under 4%, $37.8M with -8.85% deepest decline. These are gross-of-fees counterfactuals. The simulation shows that mechanical stops would have eliminated the account's largest losses and converted the loss-making record into a substantially profitable one. The 67-trade max loss streak visible in the closed record would have been interrupted repeatedly.

Open positions

LIT long is the dominant open position: $13.17M notional, $6.89M unrealised gain, 547.97% unrealised ROE, 5x cross margin, held 42 days since 2026-05-29. No liquidation price is present, indicating no immediate downside boundary. No stop is in place.

Four other small short positions are open: AAVE short ($9.92M notional, -$1.59M unrealised, -191.24% unrealised ROE, 10x leverage, liquidation at 268.51); WLD short ($4.06M notional, +$724K unrealised, 151.43% unrealised ROE, 10x leverage, liquidation at 2.06); BTC short ($0.64 notional, negligible); ETH short ($0.18 notional, negligible); SOL short ($0.78 notional, negligible). The AAVE position is deeply underwater and carries a liquidation boundary at 268.51. The WLD position is profitable. None of the small shorts have stops in place.

Honest summary

  • Visible strength: Short-side edge on SOL and ETH in the closed record. The account has demonstrated the ability to identify and execute profitable short trades in these two instruments, generating $368K and $236K respectively. The top three closed wins are all shorts (SOL +$397K, ETH +$359K, UNI +$36K).
  • Visible weakness: Systematic long-side losses and catastrophic oversized revenge trades. GOLD, BRENTOIL, XPL, and ZEC have zero edge and have collectively destroyed $1M+. Revenge sizing after losses (GOLD, BRENTOIL, OP, UNI, SOL, BTC, ETH) is a repeated pattern flagged in the behavioural data. The account sizes positions at 3–50x median loss after prior losses, amplifying downside.
  • Data scope caveat: Only the most recent 10,000 public fills are visible. The account has been active for 295 days; earlier history is not included in this analysis. The LIT position's 42-day hold and $6.89M unrealised gain are the primary driver of current account value, but this gain is unrealised and subject to mark-to-market risk.

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
1
Examples
  • MEGA on Apr 29, 2026: added to the position; while it was already moving against entry; outcome -$559.
Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
49
Examples
  • OP: -$40,285 realised loss; 14.1x median closed loss.
  • UNI: -$13,723 realised loss; 4.8x median closed loss.
+47 more matching cycles
Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
50
Examples
  • OP on Sep 17, 2025: followed a -$962 loss; larger-than-normal size.
  • UNI on Sep 17, 2025: followed a -$13,723 loss; larger-than-normal size.
+48 more matching cycles
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.-$7,349.59
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+18.1%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.$9,452,336
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-2.3%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
5
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.$18,904,672
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-4.5%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
5
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.$37,809,345
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-8.8%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
5

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Nov 8 with $39M and ends at Jul 8 with $57M.Account value (USD)Date$57M$47M$37MNov 8Apr 29Jul 8

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
SOLshort$488,381$397,4932025-10-10
ETHshort$197,341$359,1822025-10-10
UNIshort$35,416$36,5582025-10-10
ETHshort$207,144$24,8012025-11-05
SOLshort$431,906$9,4432025-11-09

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
xyz:GOLD3+33.3%-$529,762
SOL13+38.5%$368,087
xyz:BRENTOIL40.0%-$294,180
ETH20+20.0%$236,661
XPL70.0%-$223,738
xyz:CL20.0%-$138,107
ZEC6+33.3%-$106,093
WLD50.0%-$92,439
xyz:PLTR40.0%-$91,057
AXS30.0%-$84,925
OP90.0%-$82,856
BTC9+33.3%-$59,934
ARB11+18.2%-$46,193
ZRO30.0%-$43,520
TON20.0%-$36,110
xyz:SNDK20.0%-$33,508
TNSR10.0%-$32,245
xyz:GOOGL20.0%-$31,844
TAO40.0%-$31,396
MEGA20.0%-$28,889
ASTER70.0%-$27,572
SEI40.0%-$19,730
HYPE7+57.1%-$18,516
BNB20.0%-$15,302
xyz:TSLA6+33.3%-$12,444
xyz:NVDA10.0%-$12,282
xyz:AMZN10.0%-$11,725
MON20.0%-$11,677
xyz:SP50030.0%-$9,702
xyz:ORCL10.0%-$8,718
LTC20.0%-$8,261
xyz:PLATINUM10.0%-$7,366
xyz:SILVER30.0%-$7,070
NEAR40.0%-$6,419
xyz:BABA30.0%-$5,978
POPCAT10.0%-$5,260
XLM20.0%-$5,251
APT20.0%-$5,107
kPEPE10.0%-$4,972
TIA6+33.3%-$4,493
SUI5+20.0%-$4,258
LINK20.0%-$3,578
CHIP40.0%-$3,447
AAVE20.0%-$3,131
CRV20.0%-$3,005
UNI5+40.0%$2,928
NIL10.0%-$2,898
kSHIB10.0%-$1,915
JTO20.0%-$1,912
xyz:XYZ10020.0%-$1,687
RUNE1+100.0%$1,501
PENDLE10.0%-$1,467
WIF20.0%-$1,421
hyna:ETH20.0%-$799
#75010.0%-$656
kBONK10.0%-$529
ADA10.0%-$453
XRP20.0%-$228
hyna:HYPE10.0%-$214
#77011+100.0%$155
VVV5+60.0%$114
PUMP10.0%-$76
MORPHO20.0%-$69
xyz:MSTR1+100.0%$26
ATOM10.0%-$2
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