The opening paragraph
You're sitting on a LIT long worth $13.2m notional at 5x leverage, entered on 2026-05-29, held for 42 days. The unrealised PnL is +$6.89m and the unrealised ROE is 547.97%—but that is still open exposure. The outcome is unknown until the position closes. There is no liquidation price on this trade, which means you have room to breathe, but the entire data covered tells a story: you're down $1.62m on closed trades, and only this one open position is keeping you from looking like a cautionary tale on a compliance dashboard.
The greatest hits
- GOLD twice in one day, then again 532 hours later: Closed a $4.5m GOLD long for -$172,891 on 2026-03-19 at 4677.98, then opened another $3.66m GOLD long the same day and rode it for 22 days to -$356,973 on 2026-04-10. Both flagged as revenge trades. Total damage: -$529,864 on a single instrument with a 33% win rate.
- XPL cost you $144,481 in a zero-hour trade: Opened and closed a long on 2025-09-30 for a -$144k loss—50x the median losing episode. The evidence pack flags it as oversized.
- OP, UNI, and BRENTOIL revenge entries stacked losses: OP revenge on 2025-09-17 after a -$962 loss (notional $824k); UNI revenge on 2025-09-17 after -$13.7k (notional $798k); BRENTOIL revenge on 2026-04-07 after a prior loss (notional $858k). None of these closed green.
- Closed 220 episodes with a 15.45% win rate and 0.35 profit factor: Long trades averaged -$1.35m realised PnL; short trades averaged -$271k. The risk simulator shows that at 1% risk per trade, you'd have made $9.45m with a 40% win rate—the skill is there, but position sizing and instrument selection buried it.
- Funding costs have been brutal: AAVE shorts cost $40,278 in funding alone and are now underwater by $1.59m unrealised. WLD shorts cost $12,951 in funding but are up $724k. The margin is cross, the leverage is on, and the funding meter is still running.
The pattern
You have genuine edge in SOL and ETH shorts (primary_edge verdict, 38% and 20% win rates respectively), but you're burying it under oversized losses in instruments with zero edge: GOLD, BRENTOIL, XPL, WLD, PLTR, AXS, and OP all show 0% win rate and combined realised losses of over $1.1m. Revenge entries follow losses instead of pausing them. The LIT position is a 48% hedge against the closed-trade carnage, not a trading thesis.
The reluctant compliments
- The LIT entry was well-timed relative to available fills: Entered at $1.2958 on 2026-05-29, now at $2.7159. That's a 2.1x move in 42 days on a 5x position, and you held it without panic-closing.
- Short bias in SOL and ETH is your only repeatable pattern: Combined realised PnL on these two is +$757k across 33 episodes. If you'd sized to your actual edge instead of your account size, the math flips.
The verdict
You've got $6.89m in unrealised gains on one position and $1.62m in realised losses on 220 closed trades. The LIT long is not a trading win—it's a life raft. The moment it closes, the data covered closes with it, and you'll be staring at a -4.07% data-covered PnL with a 67-loss streak in your history and a deepest decline in this window of -59.98% between highest balance in this window and lowest balance in this window. The skill to short SOL and ETH profitably exists in this wallet. The discipline to stop adding to GOLD does not.