Bottom line up front
Open ETH short dominates this wallet: $34.1M notional, -$607k unrealised, -27.2% unrealised ROE, 15x leverage, cross margin, held 52 days, liquidation at $3,255. This is still open exposure; the unrealised loss is not locked in, and the final outcome is unknown until the position closes. The liquidation price sits 81% above current mark, but the position remains the primary driver of account risk. Across the data covered, closed trades lost $3.9k after fees on $704k gross volume, while four large short positions across ETH, BTC, SOL, and AVAX carry combined unrealised gains of $2.9M that mask a deeply underwater account structure.
What the data shows
This account has been active for 52 days in the data covered and is position-dominated by a single underwater ETH short entered on 19 May at $1,761.84. The position has accrued $110k in funding costs since entry and now sits $607k in the red at current mark of $1,793.80. The account's highest balance in this window was $161.1M on 17 June; the lowest balance in this window was $68.7M on 20 May, marking a deepest decline in this window of 48.7%. Current balance stands at $91M.
Closed trades tell a separate and damaging story. Thirteen closed episodes generated -$3.9k realised loss after $8.4k in net fee drag. The account is short-biased in closed trades—shorts won at 60% rate versus longs at 12.5%—but the edge is fragile. Three trades on 19 May were oversized losers: SILVER long lost $162 (37.8x median loss), SP500 long lost $35.47 (8.3x median loss), and BRENTOIL long lost $28.92 (6.8x median loss). All three were entered and exited within 12 hours. The largest win was a revenge trade: INTC short on 19 May, entered at $111.04, exited at $109.49 for $134.84 gain after a prior loss in SILVER. Win rate across all closed episodes is 30.8%, profit factor is 0.56, and expectancy per trade is -$8.44.
The account carries 130 open episodes across five coins. The ETH short is the headline, but BTC short ($5.8M notional, -$15.5k unrealised, -5.3% ROE, 20x leverage, liquidation at $371.6k) and SOL short ($14.9M notional, +$226.6k unrealised, +29.9% ROE, 20x leverage, liquidation at $222.79) are material. ATOM long ($106.6k notional, -$1.1k unrealised, -5% ROE, 5x leverage) and AVAX short ($202.2k notional, +$706 unrealised, +3.5% ROE, 10x leverage) are minor. No stops are in place on any position.
Trade quality
Win rate of 30.8% on 13 closed episodes is below breakeven. Profit factor of 0.56 means every dollar won generated $1.79 in losses. Expectancy of -$8.44 per trade confirms the closed-trade sample is unprofitable. The win/loss ratio of 1.26 (average win $34.79 versus average loss -$27.65) is inverted relative to the win rate—the account wins smaller and loses larger, a classic sign of poor risk management.
Fees paid total $8.6k gross, with net fee drag of $8.4k. On $704k gross closed trade volume, that is 1.2% of volume consumed by execution. The account is 66.1% maker, suggesting passive entry discipline, but the closed-trade losses dwarf fee impact.
Post-mortems
SILVER long, 19 May, $161.99 loss. Entered at $75.98, exited at $75.88 after 12.24 hours. Position size reached $145.6k notional. This was flagged as both an oversized loser (37.8x median loss) and a revenge trade following a $35.47 loss in SP500 earlier the same day. Structural stop distance was 1.35% from entry; the trade hit -0.13% before exit. The pattern is clear: after a small loss, the account sized into SILVER at 4x the prior position notional and held through a minor adverse move before cutting.
SP500 long, 19 May, $35.47 loss. Entered at $7,375.72, exited at $7,375.50 after 12.15 hours. Position size reached $67.2k notional. Flagged as oversized loser (8.3x median loss). Structural stop was 0.41% away; the trade moved -0.003% before exit. This was the trigger for the SILVER revenge trade that followed.
INTC short, 19 May, $134.84 win. Entered at $111.04, exited at $109.49 after 12.04 hours. Position size reached $64.9k notional. Flagged as revenge trade following the $161.99 SILVER loss. This was the only profitable revenge trade in the sample. The win came 12 hours after the SILVER exit, suggesting the account re-entered with conviction after a loss and caught a move in the right direction.
What the risk simulation reveals
Historical counterfactuals under fixed stop-loss rules show severe deepest decline in this window compression but larger absolute losses. Under a 1% rule, simulated deepest decline in this window would have been -1.18% with realised loss of -$1.07M. Under 2%, simulated deepest decline in this window would have been -2.35% with realised loss of -$2.14M. Under 4%, simulated deepest decline in this window would have been -4.7% with realised loss of -$4.28M. Two episodes would have stopped early under each rule. The simulator is gross of fees. These counterfactuals illustrate that the current 48.7% deepest decline in this window was driven by open position mark-to-market swings, not closed-trade realisation; mechanical stops would have crystallised losses instead of preserving the possibility of recovery.
Open positions
ETH short is the dominant exposure: $34.1M notional, -$607k unrealised, -27.2% ROE, 15x leverage, cross margin, 52 days held, liquidation at $3,255.41. Funding costs since entry total $110.3k. No stop is in place.
BTC short is the second-largest: $5.8M notional, -$15.5k unrealised, -5.3% ROE, 20x leverage, cross margin, 52 days held, liquidation at $371.6k. No stop is in place.
SOL short is profitable in the open window: $14.9M notional, +$226.6k unrealised, +29.9% ROE, 20x leverage, cross margin, 52 days held, liquidation at $222.79. No stop is in place.
ATOM long is a minor position: $106.6k notional, -$1.1k unrealised, -5% ROE, 5x leverage, cross margin, 52 days held, no liquidation price. No stop is in place.
AVAX short is the smallest: $202.2k notional, +$706 unrealised