RRektrospect

@Wintermute - 0xecb63caa47c7c4e77f60f1ce858cf28dc2b82b00

@Wintermute wallet audit

Open ETH short dominates this wallet: $34,095,297 notional, -$607,348 -27.2% unrealised, 15x cross, held at least 52 days, liquidation $3,255. Closed trades are supporting context: -$110 realised trading PnL across 13 closed position cycles, using the latest 10,000 public fills from May 19, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit.

loss-dominatedA quick bucket assigned from realised trading PnL, closed position-cycle count, and whether the public fill source was capped. Data covered: May 19, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Classification basis: closed net pnl after fees available window.position-dominatedOpen unrealised PnL is more than 2x the absolute closed realised PnL ($110). The page leads with open exposure, and closed trades are supporting context.latest 10,000 fillsHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 19, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
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Dominant open positionThis wallet is led by live open exposure rather than closed trades. The trigger is open unrealised PnL greater than 2x closed realised PnL, or the largest open notional greater than closed-trade volume.Open ETH short dominates this wallet: $34,095,297 notional, -$607,348 -27.2% unrealised, 15x cross, held at least 52 days, liquidation $3,255.

Closed trades still matter, but they are not the main account story here. The closed-trade sample covers May 19, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; the open-position figures are live account-state figures from Hyperliquid when the audit ran. The unrealised PnL is still open, not a locked result; liquidation at $3,255 remains the downside boundary for this position.

Position
ETH short
Open PnL
-$607,348 (-27.2% ROE)
Notional
$34,095,297
Liquidation
$3,255
Read this as
entry $1,762 · mark $1,794 · held at least 52 days · 15x cross · $2,273,020 margin used
Open unrealised PnLLive mark-to-market profit or loss on current open positions from Hyperliquid account state. It is not closed or banked.$185,797-27.2% ROE
Open notionalCurrent notional value of the open positions. When this dwarfs closed-trade activity, the open position is the wallet's main story.$103,736,486ETH short
LiquidationLiquidation price reported by Hyperliquid for the dominant open position when available.$3,25515x cross
Closed realised PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: May 19, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. This excludes the live unrealised PnL above.-$11013 closed cycles
Closed volumeGross notional from closed position cycles in the data covered. This is the comparison used to decide whether an open position dominates the wallet.$703,862143 total cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

This audit is position-dominated, so open unrealised PnL is shown separately from closed realised trading PnL. The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $90,996,837 minus closed trading PnL -$110 = starting estimate $90,996,947). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out. Older fills may also exist outside the latest 10,000-fill window.

Data coveredHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 19, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.May 19, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the latest 10,000 public fills Hyperliquid exposed for this wallet. Because the public fill source hit its cap, older trades may exist but are not included here.

Public fills
10,000
Position cycles
13 closed, 130 open
Limit
latest 10,000 fills only
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: May 19, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. It is not a prediction.$90,996,837
latest fills onlyHyperliquid's public fills source is capped for very active wallets. This audit used the latest 10,000 public fills it could retrieve, covering May 19, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026. Older trades may exist outside this page, so lifetime claims are avoided.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 19 with $91M and ends at May 20 with $91M.Account value (USD)Date$91M$91M$91MMay 19May 19May 20
Roast summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.The punchline
  • Open ETH short dominates this wallet: $34,095,297 notional, -$607,348 -27.2% unrealised, 15x cross, held at least 52 days, liquidation $3,255.
  • Closed-trade context: -$110 realised trading PnL across 13 closed position cycles in the data covered.
  • Data used: latest 10,000 public fills from May 19, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026; older public fills may exist outside this audit because the source hit its cap.
  • The hold duration is a lower bound because the position was already open at the first visible fill for that market.
Reluctant complimentsA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Where it still works
  • SOL short is genuinely profitable: +$226,594 unrealised on a 52-day hold. The trade is working, the sizing is appropriate for a winner, and the liquidation price is far enough away to absorb volatility.
  • Short bias has a 60% win rate on closed trades. The three closed shorts won twice. Longs are 12.5% win rate. The directional bias is sound; the execution on individual longs is not.
  • You're still solvent and the account is at $91m. The highest balance in this window was $161.1m on June 17th; the lowest was $68.7m on May 20th. The deepest decline in this window was -48.72%. You survived the draw.
Roast analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full roast analysis

The opening paragraph

You're short 19,007 ETH at 1761.84, holding a $34.1m position on 15x leverage since May 19th, down $607,348 unrealised—that's a -27.2% ROE on a single trade that's still bleeding. The liquidation boundary sits at $3,255, which means you need ETH to nearly double from here before the position gets force-closed, but the unrealised loss is very much real and unlocked. Only the most recent public fills are visible in this data covered, so this snapshot captures the open book as of the analysis date, not a final outcome.

The greatest hits

  • SILVER revenge trade on May 19th: Lost $161.99 on a $145,646 position in 12 hours after taking a $35 loss on SP500 minutes earlier. The position was 37.8x the median loss size. This is textbook revenge sizing.
  • SP500 and BRENTOIL stacked on the same day: Two oversized longs ($67,236 and $27,795 notional) both opened and closed on May 19th for -$35 and -$28 respectively. Combined they cost $64 in a 12-hour window while the account was already underwater.
  • The ETH short itself: Entered at $1,761.84 on May 19th, now at $1,793.80 mark price. The position has moved against you for 52 days straight. Funding data-covered is -$7.38m gross; funding since open is -$110,281. You're paying to hold this trade.
  • Closed realised PnL is -$3,888 after $8,419 in net fee drag. The 13 closed episodes generated $109.70 in raw profit before fees, then fees erased it and then some. Profit factor is 0.56—you're losing $1.44 for every $1 you make on closed trades.
  • SOL short is the only bright spot in the open book: +$226,594 unrealised on a $14.9m notional short at 20x leverage, held 52 days. It's a +29.93% ROE position, but it's drowning in a sea of red. The liquidation boundary is $222.79.

The pattern

The closed trades on May 19th show a trader chasing losses in real time: SP500 loss → SILVER revenge entry at 5x the median position size → BRENTOIL and MSTR piled on the same day. The open book is dominated by two mega-shorts (ETH and SOL) that have been held for 52 days with cumulative funding costs in the millions. The account is net short crypto and commodities, but the sizing is inverted—the losing position (ETH) is the largest, the winning position (SOL) is secondary. Fee drag is eating the closed-trade edge alive.

The reluctant compliments

  • SOL short is genuinely profitable: +$226,594 unrealised on a 52-day hold. The trade is working, the sizing is appropriate for a winner, and the liquidation price is far enough away to absorb volatility.
  • Short bias has a 60% win rate on closed trades. The three closed shorts won twice. Longs are 12.5% win rate. The directional bias is sound; the execution on individual longs is not.
  • You're still solvent and the account is at $91m. The highest balance in this window was $161.1m on June 17th; the lowest was $68.7m on May 20th. The deepest decline in this window was -48.72%. You survived the draw.

The verdict

You're holding a $34m short that's cost you $607k in unrealised losses and $7.4m in data-covered funding, while your closed trades lost money after fees and your revenge entries on May 19th read like a panic spiral. The SOL short is the only thing keeping the account from looking catastrophic, and it's half the size of the ETH anchor around your neck.

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
3
Examples
  • xyz:SP500: -$35 realised loss; 8.3x median closed loss.
  • xyz:SILVER: -$162 realised loss; 37.8x median closed loss.
+1 more matching cycle
Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
3
Examples
  • xyz:SILVER on May 19, 2026: followed a -$35 loss; larger-than-normal size.
  • xyz:INTC on May 19, 2026: followed a -$162 loss; larger-than-normal size.
+1 more matching cycle
ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.-$8.44
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.n/a
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+66.1%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.-$1,069,967
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-1.2%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
2
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.-$2,139,933
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-2.4%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
2
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.-$4,279,867
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-4.7%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
2

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at May 19 with $91M and ends at May 19 with $89M.Account value (USD)Date$91M$90M$89MMay 19May 19May 19

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
xyz:INTCshort$64,969$1352026-05-19
xyz:BRENTOILshort$20,428$22026-05-19
xyz:MRVLshort$6,136$22026-05-19
xyz:MRVLlong$420$02026-05-19

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
xyz:SILVER10.0%-$162
xyz:INTC2+50.0%$131
xyz:SP50020.0%-$37
xyz:BRENTOIL3+33.3%-$27
xyz:MSTR10.0%-$11
xyz:MU10.0%-$4
xyz:MRVL3+66.7%$1
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