RRektrospect

@Wintermute - 0xecb63caa47c7c4e77f60f1ce858cf28dc2b82b00

@Wintermute wallet audit

@Wintermute audit. $1,842,731 realised trading PnL across 1165 closed position cycles, using 1,005 public fills from Jan 3, 2025 to Jun 1, 2025.

profitableA quick bucket assigned from realised trading PnL, closed position-cycle count, and whether the public fill source was capped. Data covered: Jan 3, 2025 to Jun 1, 2025.Jan 3-Jun 1 dataThis audit used 1,005 public fills covering Jan 3, 2025 to Jun 1, 2025. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.
ModeProfessional keeps the tone factual. Roast uses the same numbers but writes the commentary more sharply.
ProfessionalRoast
Read trader analysisShare on X
Current account valueAccount value from Hyperliquid's public account state when this audit ran. This is a balance snapshot, not proof of lifetime deposits or withdrawals.$2,842,731Jan 3-Jun 1
Realised trading PnLClosed trading profit or loss after fees in the data covered: Jan 3, 2025 to Jun 1, 2025. Deposits and withdrawals are not counted as PnL. This is the visible public fill history used by this audit.$1,842,731+184.3%
Max drawdownLargest fall from a previous balance high to a later low inside the data covered: Jan 3, 2025 to Jun 1, 2025.-19.4%1165 closed position cycles
Win rateShare of closed position cycles that ended positive. Profit factor compares total winning realised PnL with total losing realised PnL.+54.3%1.78 profit factor
Total volumeGross notional traded across 1,005 reconstructed public fills. A position cycle can contain many individual fills.$2,480,000,0001,184 position cycles
Trading PnL vs transfersRealised trading PnL comes from Hyperliquid closed-fill profit and loss. Deposits and withdrawals can change account value, but they are not counted as trading PnL here.

The dollar PnL is the realised result from closed trades in the data covered. The percentage uses an inferred starting value (current account value $2,842,731 minus closed trading PnL $1,842,731 = starting estimate $1,000,000). This audit does not ingest a deposit or withdrawal ledger, so it can show that trades lost money, but it cannot prove whether the owner also moved funds in or out.

Data coveredThis audit used 1,005 public fills covering Jan 3, 2025 to Jun 1, 2025. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.Jan 3, 2025 to Jun 1, 2025

This is not a fixed last-week or last-month period. It is the actual span covered by the public fills used for this wallet, so the page should be read as 117 calendar days of visible trading history.

Public fills
1,005
Position cycles
1,165 closed, 3 open
Limit
public fill cap not hit
Equity curveA historical line showing how the wallet balance moved across the data covered: Jan 3, 2025 to Jun 1, 2025. It is not a prediction.$2,842,731
all visible fillsThis audit used 1,005 public fills covering Jan 3, 2025 to Jun 1, 2025. The date range comes from the actual public fill and position-cycle timestamps, not a preset calendar period.
Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Jan 1 with $1M and ends at May 18 with $2.1M.Account value (USD)Date$2.1M$1.6M$1MJan 1Mar 1May 18
Audit summaryA short extract from the full trader analysis below. It is built from the stored numbers and evidence pack.What matters immediately
  • Data used: 1,005 public fills from Jan 3, 2025 to Jun 1, 2025; this is the actual visible trading span, not a preset last-week or last-month period.
  • This is a profitable account with a materially positive data-covered record: +184.3% PnL with a -19.4% max drawdown.
  • The main story is not damage control.
Analysis readoutA plain-language interpretation layer from the trader analysis. Use the cards and tables below for the raw evidence.Strengths & weaknesses
  • The account is profitable over a meaningful sample.
  • The risk simulator keeps the account profitable under all three rule sizes.
  • Oversized loser detection still matters because the edge is not evenly distributed.
Trader analysisThis is the full written analysis for this wallet and mode. The metrics, flags, simulator, and tables below are the supporting evidence.Full trader analysis

Bottom line up front

This is a profitable account with a materially positive data-covered record: +184.3% PnL with a -19.4% max drawdown. The main story is not damage control. It is a sizeable edge that still carries episodic concentration risk.

What the data shows

The wallet has produced $1,842,731 of realised PnL across a large sample. That makes it a very different case from a thin-edge or loss-dominated account.

The visible fragility is not a lack of edge; it is the scale of single losing position cycles. The largest loser bucket still trips the oversized-loser check, which means the risk profile is not as smooth as the headline PnL implies.

What the risk simulator reveals

Under a simulated 1% rule, the historical outcome would have been $1,102,317 with -8.4% max drawdown. Under 2%, it would have been $1,972,884 with -16.3% max drawdown. Under 4%, it would have been $2,618,993 with -20.1% max drawdown.

Honest summary

  • The account is profitable over a meaningful sample.
  • The risk simulator keeps the account profitable under all three rule sizes.
  • Oversized loser detection still matters because the edge is not evenly distributed.

Behaviour checksRule-based warnings found in the trading history. They are not moral judgements; they mark patterns worth reviewing.

Rule-based position-cycle checks
FOMO re-entryReopened the same market and direction soon after a winning close, but at a worse entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Averaging downAdded size while the position was already moving against the entry.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

Oversized loserA losing position cycle more than 3x the wallet's median closed loss.
1
Examples
  • BTC: -$142,884 realised loss; 3.7x median closed loss.
Revenge tradeOpened a larger-than-normal position within one hour after a closed loss.
0

No matching position cycles in the data covered.

ExpectancyAverage result per closed position cycle after wins and losses are blended. Positive means each completed cycle added money on average.$1,581.74
Fees / realised PnLFees as a share of realised trading PnL. High values mean execution cost is eating a meaningful part of the edge.+11.4%
Maker fill rateShare of fills that added liquidity rather than crossed the spread. Higher maker share usually means more patient execution.+84.9%

Expectancy is not a forecast. It is the historical average result per closed position cycle in this reconstructed sample.

Risk simulatorA counterfactual replay of the same historical trades using fixed risk limits. It is for comparing risk shape, not predicting future returns.

Replays the same closed position cycles with 1%, 2%, and 4% account-risk sizing. It shows what the wallet would have made or lost if each eligible cycle was sized from account value at entry and a structural stop.

1% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 1% of account value at the simulated stop.$1,102,317
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-8.4%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
84
2% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 2% of account value at the simulated stop.$1,972,884
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-16.3%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
71
4% account-risk ruleThis scenario limits each eligible position cycle to about 4% of account value at the simulated stop.$2,618,993
Max drawdownLargest high-to-low account-value drop inside this simulated replay.
-20.1%
Stopped earlyHow many historical position cycles would have exited before the real close because the simulated stop was hit.
59

The 1%, 2%, and 4% rules are account-risk limits per position cycle, not leverage settings. If the simulated stop is breached, the cycle is stopped early. Outputs are gross of fees and funding, so use them as risk-shape comparisons rather than exact alternate realised trading PnL.

Equity curve by date and account valueX-axis shows date. Y-axis shows account value in US dollars. The line starts at Jan 1 with $1M and ends at May 18 with $3M.Account value (USD)Date$3M$2M$1MJan 1Mar 1May 18

Top lossesThe largest realised losing position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Click a row for the trade breakdown
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.

Top winsThe largest realised winning position cycles in the data covered by this audit.

Realised position-cycle outcomes
MarketThe traded Hyperliquid market or coin.SideLong means the wallet benefited if price rose. Short means it benefited if price fell.SizeLargest notional exposure reached during the reconstructed position cycle.PnLRealised profit or loss when the position cycle closed.DateClosed date when available; otherwise the cycle open date.
BTClong$196,500$5,5682025-03-09

By marketBreaks the audit down by traded market or coin so you can see which markets helped or hurt the account.

Realised results by coin
CoinThe traded Hyperliquid market.CyclesClosed reconstructed position cycles for this market. One cycle can contain many fills.WinShare of that market's closed position cycles that ended positive.PnLRealised PnL attributed to this market's closed position cycles in the data covered by this audit.
BTC29+44.8%$6,131
CL3+33.3%-$14,333
FARTCOIN120.0%-$777
Share this audit on X